England v New Zealand Third Test Player Tips: Root and Tongue primed for big shows

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Thursday 25 June, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports

Back Joe Root first-innings century @ 4/15.00

Runs are expected at Trent Bridge. Stifling Uk temperatures should mean a hard and flat wicket. This chimes with the recent history of runmaking being relatively easy at the venue.

So to make profits we have to consider the players most likely to score runs. Who can be relied upon? It's a short conversation. The answer is Joe Root.

Root has a superb record in Nottingham, adding further ballast to the belief that the surface there is road-like.

In nine Tests he has passed 50 seven times. Five of those have been tons. Against Zimbabwe in 2025 he managed only 34, ending a three-Test sequence of consecutive centuries.

The Betfair Sportsbook give you 16/54.20 that he top scores for England in the first-innings On win rates (last two years), Root returns 38% of the time. Toi be clear, Sportsbook are saying that Root wins at a rate of 23%. If you bet Root in that market you have the comfort blanket of knowing that it is a wrong price.

The problem with such a bet, however, is that Root's genius may not stand alone. On a good batting wicket he could quite easily get a ton and then be pipped by a faster-scorer batter. Someone like Harry Brook. At the height of Bazball, Root's win-rate on this market collapsed. He was still scoring runs but the attacking-style on flat wickets meant that he was, time and time again, edged out.

During the Ashes, on less conducive wickets and in a calamitous series, Root's ability did mark out as head and shoulders above the rest.

On a flatty at Trent Bridge, there are runners to rival Root. So the shrewd move could be to take them out of the race. You have one bet instead of multiples by betting milestones. Bet Root for a 50 and 100 then you don't have to worry about what others do. Sportsbook go 13/82.63 for a 50 in the first-innings and 4/15.00 for a century in the same.

Top England and NZ top bat records

Now read Ed's main preview and tips for the third Test

Back Josh Tongue top England 1st inns bowler @ 13/53.60

England's love-hate relationship continues with Ollie Robinson who is apparently fit for the third Test but has been ignored despite a heroic and match-winning effort at Lord's upon his return from exile.

Robinson injured a knee which meant he missed The Oval defeat. It robbed England of their most skilled and potent bowler. But it could hardly be construed as being his fault.

Yet England's patience with Robinson's body and temperament is wafer thin. Any niggle or nag and he is out. Robinson's has a 33% win rate on top bowler in the first-innings.

The opportunity to bet such a strong performer is unavailable. But fret not. Maybe a flat one at Trent Bridge wouldn't have suited him. And in the absence of such a elite operator, there is a chance that England's second-best bowler, Josh Tongue, steps up. There is, after all, little to beat.

Tongue's all-action style may be rewarded on a pitch offering little. And we're consistent in the view that he can mop up easy wickets at the tail. In that regard he is one to keep in mind in-play if only a one or two behind.

Tongue wins at a rate of 22%. With Robinson's continued absence we wouldn't be surprised if that percentage rises. At this stage in his career the bet focuses on him proving to be a much better bowler than the rate suggests.

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