England v New Zealand Third Test Tips: Kiwis a clear value bet...if batting first

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Thursday 24 June, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports

England v New Zealand third Test team news

England produced the sort of stinker at The Oval that one would expect of a team shorn of its captain, wicketkeeper and a key strike bowler. But fret not. Ben Stokes, Jamie Smith and Gus Atkinson are all set to return.

Indeed, tales of Stokes's demise have been proved to be premature. There were doubts whether he would come back at all after Joe Root was forced to deputise. Curfew-gate, however, is over and Stokes appears to have been exonerated. So all is well. Right?

Maybe not. There are suggestions, started by Michael Vaughan, that the England camp is split. Vaughan said there were parties briefing against Stokes. There are also rumours that Stokes and his vice-captain, Harry Brook, do not see eye-to-eye.

The bright news is that Emilio Gay is looking Test class. And Jofra Archer should be better for the run. Ollie Robinson remains a doubt. James Rew, Jordan Cox and Matt Fisher, who all came in for The Oval, probably miss out. Shoaib Bashir could make his first appearance of the series.

Possible XI: Gay, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Smith, Stokes, Atkinson, Archer, Tongue, Bashir

New Zealand could have been forgiven for collectively feeling a little unsure about the impact of Kane Williamson's retirement. Henry Nicholls, his long-standing deputy, however, grasped the opportunity to nail his position as permanent replacement.

Nicholls made 121 to punish England in the second innings in south London. He didn't pick up the match gong, though. That went to the brilliant Matt Henry who found form and fitness after a struggle at Lord's he took 11 wickets in the match to serve a reminder to why he is elite.

The Kiwis could make a change for this one. It is harsh on Nathan Smith to miss out but New Zealand may feel they need some spin coverage. Mitch Santner stands by.

Possible XI: Conway, Latham, Ravindra, Nicholls, Mitchell, Phillips, Blundell, Santner, Jamieson, Henry, O'Rourke

England v New Zealand third Test pitch report

Two tests into the series and the bowlers have been bang in the game in each of them. Batting was much easier at The Oval after the debacle at Lord's. That sets the batters up for Trent Bridge where the series could be bookended by polar-opposite surfaces. We expect a road in Nottingham.

There have been four Tests in the last five years and the innings-by-innings batting average suggest a wicket which remains true and good to score on. England duffed up Zimbabwe in may 2025 on this track but the Zims still busted 250 twice. The previous year three of the four innings saw 400 breached. The opposition was West indies and although they were razed in the fourth it is a good an indicator as you could get that it's flat that their batters stuck in.

Trent Bridge bat averages per wicket by innings

1st - 47
2nd - 39
3rd - 32
4th - 30

In County games, there have also been signs that it's flat. In early May Nottinghamshire and Surrey each busted 400 across three. The more recent game saw Somerset post 310 and 355 for seven. But the Notts batters struggled and didn't get past 200.

Atill, in line with the innings average and scorching temperatures, it is wise to expect big-first-innings runs with day one the best time to bat. There are some showers about on day two and four. We would expect par line on the Betfair Exchange to be pushing 380-90.

Now read Ed's pick of the player bets for the third Test

England v New Zealand third Test match prediction

This continues to be a series between two of the more contrasting sides in the world game. One is ultra-professional, efficient, well-drilled and led by one of the best pacemen in the world. The other is England.

The markets don't see it the same way. England are as short as [5/6] on the Betfair Sportsbook to pinch a win. New Zealand are [7/5] with the same and as big as [2.62] on the Betfair Exchange. The latter would be a must bet but we caveat the toss. We should still get 2.407/5 NZ batting first.

It would be wrong to use the phrase workmanlike for the Kiwis. But when faced with opposition like England it fits rather well. The hosts are entirely reliant on some flashy bit of brilliance from box-office performers. The Daisy players. Some days he does, some days he doesn't. Harry Brook or Jofra Archer for example. Both are capable of turning a game on its head in a session but that's no substitute for the New Zealand brand of doing the darn hard yards over and over again. And that's not a criticisim of the hosts. England are entertaining and they might pull off an 'upset' but reliability is not their forte.

Throw into the mix problems within the camp and it seems perfectly set up for New Zealand to take the series and spark the sort of revolution that should have occured post Ashes for England. Defeat for England could well mean the end of Stokes with the red-ball reset merely delayed.

England v New Zealand third Test in-play strategy

Whereas at The Oval we were keen not to overreact to wickets falling in clumps across the first two innings, this Test requires a strategy reset.

There is likely to be a big advantage to batting first and the team that has the opportunity to go big could well get well ahead of the game and not relinquish control. It's not quite a toss game but this view backs up the assertion that New Zealand are the clear value. To put it another way, counselling could be required if betting England odds-on pre-toss and they have to bowl first.

Post first-innings we expect New Zealand to have the gumption to be odds-on batting first. If it's England they should be signifcantly shorter. That tests our view that the Kiwis are the better side. It's one thing taking down a team when conditions are equal. Another when they might get the worst of them.

Ordinarily the advice is to not overreact to first-innings as we saw at The Oval. But that's not shrewd here. You could just be throwing money away on the team batting second with a mountain to climb. In short, this might not be a topsy-turvy thrill-a-minute Test for the Exchange.

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