Manchester Super Giants are in must-win territory. Few could have predicted that with three games to go after they won their first three. But three consecutive defeats in an unforgiving format mean they are now up against it.
It all started to go wrong for Manchester after the powerplay in Leeds. They were bossing the game, having posted 181. With the ball they had started well, squeezing Sunrisers who had already lost Ryan Rickleton. Unfortunately, Mitch Marsh found his range and in the end it wasn't even close with Leeds winning with 12 balls to spare.
Ever since then, Manchester have lacked confidence in the field. It looks as if they know that asking Gus Atkinson, Sonny Baker and Josh Tongue to bang it in is not enough. On good batting tracks they have been pricey. Liam Dawson and Noor Ahmad were supposed to hold an end but that hasn't really happened.
In this contest they come up against a Welsh Fire side who are more solid than spectacular. They don't rely on one dimension of play to get the job done and have picked a squad to win their home games on a slow and low Cardiff surface. In that regard they are well-suited to an Old Trafford pitch which has historically been similar.
Betfair Sportsbook are right to make Fire 8/111.73 favourites. The match odds on the Betfair Exchange is less sure, though, and it could be that the visitors go off closer to 1.834/5. At which point we play.
Fire are confident, sure in their roles and they can play with some freedom. Manchester might be a little tight and could find the pressure too much.
At the start of the season, it was thought that Trent Rockets couldn't possibly prepare another slow wicket for a home team built to blitz. Ben Duckett, Finn Allen, Aneurin Donald and Tim David would want pace on the ball so they could hit through the line of the ball with ease. They haven't got that.
It's a classic Nottingham surface for this tournament with runscoring and shotmaking difficult. It hasn't hurt Rockets, though. They were top of the table before Fire's match with MSG. Scores of 159 and 146 don't scream stodgefest. But anyone who saw Rockets squeeze Sunrisers last time out will recognise a tricky wicket.
Sunrisers looked to be cruising to the latter target but suddenly found themselves in quicksand with canny bowlers bowling variation and pace off. Despite Mitch Marsh and Harry Brook well-set they got behind the rate and didn't even get close in the end.
This doesn't bode well for a Birmingham team that are low on smarts when it comes to solving such equations. Against Southern Brave, on a slow one in Southampton, they collapsed. They were razed for 100 in Manchester, which can also be turgid.
If Phoenix bat first it could be hard work. Betfair Sportsbook may be a little slow to catch on to this track and the unders 151.5 for Phoenix total match runs has the feel of a strong bet. Phoenix won the head-to-head on a flatty in Birmingham early on but a lot has happened since then.
Back under Phoenix match runs 151.5