New Zealand v South Africa T20 Tips: A 35/1 gamble on big runs in Harare

• Harare surface might not be as bad as expected

• Kiwis and Saffers capable of runs

• Performance bets look like value

• New Zealanders back from MLC

New Zealand v South Africa
Wednesday 16 July, 12:00
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v South Africa T20 team news

New Zealand have named a squad of which eight have been playing in the Major League. Michael Bracewell, a title winner for New York, may find this game comes a little early after triumphing in Dallas on Monday.

Matt Henry has arrived from the Blast, Mitch Santner will lead. But there is no Finn Allen, who suffered an injury in MLC. Devon Conway and Rachin Ravindra may open. Conway was discarded by Texas halfway through the MLC. Likewise Daryl Mitchell. 

Possible NZ XI:  Conway, Ravindra, Seifert, Chapman, Phillips, Hay, Neesham, Santner, Sodhi, Henry, O'Rourke

South Africa are up and running after beating hosts Zimbabwe in game one on Monday. Rassie van der Dussen leads an experimental side with much of the big names rested. There's no Ryan Rickleton, Tristan Stubbs, Marco Jansen, David Miller or Kagiso Rabada. 

The top three of Luhan-dre Pretorius, Reeza Hendricks and van der Dussen flopped against Zimbabwe and South Africa needed Rubin Hermann and Dewald Brevis to dig them out of a hole. Earlier Geroge Linde took three for ten.

Probable SA XI:  Pretorius, Hendricks, van der Dussen, Hermann, Brevis, Bosch, Linde, Simelane, Peter, Burger, Ngidi

New Zealand v South Africa T20 pitch report

In the last 13 T20 internationals (two-year study) played at Harare in the day the run rate is just 7.57. That goes up to 8.8 for the five games that India played in the sample. There have been only two first-innings of more than 180. But it would seem right that more than 170 could well be the minimum requirement in a contest involving two-well-matched teams. Of those matches, 12 produced results and there is a toss bias to be aware of with seven won by the chaser. 

Sportsbook's over sixes line of 11.5 has won three in the 12 and overs fours at 25.5 has won five. They've taken a strong view. Indeed, they are convinced this is a dung heap. We're not so sure and overs New Zealand runs at 153.5 could be a gimme. We're also tempted by big prices on both teams to score big. The gamble on both reaching 200 at 35/136.00 for example. India smashed 234 on it in the study period. Both teams for 160 at 15/82.88 may be another gimme.

New Zealand v South Africa T20 match prediction

There's not much to choose between these teams man for man but it is not a huge surprise to see a more experienced New Zealand team made favourites on the Exchange. At 1.834/5 the Kiwis' superior nous might make the difference.

It could well be a toss game, however, as stated. It is possible that the team batting first won't be entirely sure what a good score is on this surface. In that regard the likes of Conway, Seifert and Phillips could be key for New Zealand with their wealth of experience making an in-play judgement.

New Zealand v South Africa T20 player bets

Henry is Mr Reliable in T20 and although we note the 11/43.75 that he takes most Kiwi wickets, it is his performance quote that stands out. At 20.5 it's essentially 5/61.84 that he takes two wickets. How how often has he done it? In five of his last six. A catch would be a bonus and we don't expect him to bat. 

Santner's performance quote is also cheap at overs 29.5. He averages 34 per match in the last two years and Linde's effort in game one suggests that the pitch will give him some grip.  Linde is another solid option at overs 24.5. 

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