New Zealand v West Indies Third ODI Tips: Keep calm and Kharry on with 100/1 Pierre

• New Zealand are so tough at home

• Hamilton pitch might help bowlers

• Pierre still an underrated bet at 100/1101.00

• Windies can trade bowling first

New Zealand v West Indies
Saturday 22 November, 01:00
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v West Indies third ODI team news

New Zealand have the series wrapped up after a strong come-from-behind performance against West Indies. They really are ruthless at home in this format and overcame the reduction in overs in Napier comfortably in the end.

Kyle Jamieson, in the wickets again, and Nathan Smith took seven of the Windies batters to fall. Smith came in for the injured Daryl Mitchell. Blair Tickner came in for Jacob Duffy. Duffy may return at the expense of Matt Henry who is looking some way off his best. His seven overs cost 62. Another option will be all-rounder Zak Foulkes. Another failure for Will Young at No 3 means Henry Nicholls could well get a go. 

Possible New Zealand XI: Conway, Ravindra, Nicholls, Latham, Chapman, Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Jamieson, Henry/Foulkes/Duffy, Tickner

West Indies were competitive again in game two but they lacked that bit of quality or nous to take down a tough Kiwi side. They have far from disgraced themselves in the series and have pushed hard.

Shai Hope made a brilliant century to set a target of 248 in 34 overs and the Windies were bang in the hunt until Tom Latham and Mitch Santner took the game away from them.

Ackeem Auguste replaced Alick Athanzae in the opening slot. We don't rule out further tweaks. Amir Jangoo, the wicketkeeper batsman and all-rounders Johann Layne and Kharry Pierre could all come into contention.

Possible WI XI: Auguste, Campbell, Carty/Jangoo, Hope, Rutherford, Chase, Greaves, Shepherd, Springer/Pierre/Layne, Forde, Seales 

New Zealand v West Indies third ODI pitch report

Historically there is a big old toss bias at Seddon Park in ODI under lights. In the 26 games which have produced a result, 18 have been won by the team batting second. There is more than five-run gap on average runs per wicket in the second compared to the first dig. But as the first day-night was played way back in 2003, we need to be a little careful. Indeed, in the last five there is no hint of the bias with batting first actually the way to go with three wins from six. Extending the study to a ten-year filter has eight wins from 12 for the chaser. The runs per over in that time is 5.5.

England were rolled for 175 last month by the Kiwis in a heavy defeat. And the two previous ODI were relatively low-scoring. The hosts managed only 255 against Sri lanka (Jan 2025) and two years previously the same opponents made 157.

Pre-series we were concerned that at some stage the Windies batting could struggle. Maybe this is the game. Some rain and heavy cloud cover could also assist the bowlers. We will be checking the Betfair Exchange market on Windies runs and there could be a low-risk play for extreme unders.

New Zealand v West Indies third ODI match prediction

We expect West Indies to be priced up at around the 4.003/1 mark for this one. It's been their starting point for the series. Last time out they produced an admirable effort and with rain reducing overs they went odds-on on the Betfair Exchange and at one point were the favourites at sub 1.9010/11. It made for a lovely little trade.

The same strategy can be applied here with a caveat: they need to bowl first. We really don't want to be on them at the odds if they're batting first because of the danger of this being one for the bowlers. it could be a long way back.

The contest so far has shown that West Indies need assistance from conditions or a toss bias and although they didn't get over the line, they could well have a strong spell as favourites to enable to get in and out again for a profit. 

New Zealand v West Indies third ODI player bets

We have been banging the drum for Khary Pierre at 100/1101.00 throughout the series. So with the suspicion that we may finally have a pitch which might have a 40-odd score winner on the top-bat market we have to play. As stated before he has a first-class century and is a proper all-rounder and not worthy of a quote usually reserved for genuine No 11s.

For the Kiwis we are not averse to a few darts on the lower order. Jamieson at 60s and Smith at 66 are not the worst. With the ball we feel we have to keep faith with Henry for the final time, hoping that the seam and swing which could be on offer gets his mojo going. He is 11/43.75 for top bowler for NZ.

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes