New Zealand v England Third ODI Tips: Back Root runs against underrated Kiwis

• New Zealand should be favourites

• England in the doldrums

• Kiwis make changes with no Henry

• Pitch tricky to call in Wellington

• Back unlucky Root to deliver runs

New Zealand v England
Saturday 1 November, 01:00
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v England first ODI team news

New Zealand have an unassailable lead with a game to play but they are unlikely to make wholsesale, experimental changes to their XI. 

With Matt Henry, the pacer, ruled out with a calf strain they have called up Kristian Clark as a replacement. Clark has 52 wickets in 31 List As but can also bat. He has a century domestically and a first-class average of 22.

With Kyle Jamieson also withdrawn, Clark looks certain to debut. Jacob Duffy may come out as he is in need of a rest. With the bat, Mark Chapman may be given a run out with Daryl Mitchell sitting out. Will Young's place is under threat from Devon Conway. 

Possible New Zealand XI: Conway, Ravindra, Williamson, Chapman, Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Clark, Tickner

England were hoping this ODI series would allow some of their Ashes players to tune up nicely. It is not working out that way. Ben Duckett, Jamie Smith, Joe Root and Jacob Bethell have all struggled. 

Skip Harry Brook has said he is lost for answers for the reason for the 2-0 reverse but if your top four is not putting runs on the board then you are under pressure.

Jofra Archer returned with three wickets in game two but he should surely be rested. Likewise Brydon Carse. Sonny Baker and Luke Wood should play. Rehan Ahmed, continually ignored, probably won't get a game again despite England knowing absolutely everything about Adil Rashid. 

Possible England XI: Duckett, Smith, Root, Bethell, Brook, Buttler, S Curran, Rashid, J Overton, L Wood, Baker

New Zealand v England third ODI pitch report

Not a huge amount to go on here with four ODi in ten years, none in the last five. There have been eight T20 day-night matches at Sky Stadium, Wellington. Seven of those have been won by the chaser. It's a study sample from 2006-2018 but there have been no domestic day-night matches to check whether the trend holds. There have been four night games, though, which brings the bias back to six from 11 to the chaser (one no result).

In reality, there probably isn't enough regular cricket played there to bet on a trend. There have been only five games in all conditions in the last five years. All were T20 with an RPO of 8.7. More than 200 in the first dig was busted twice and there was one game with both teams scoring 200. But there have also been low scores. Pakistan managed only 128 this March.

The game should start under fair skies. No rain is forecast. The best advice is to wait for a look at the surface and consider boundary lengths. 

New Zealand v England third ODI match prediction

Pop quiz. Can you price up this contest for me? Team A has a 2-0 lead in the three-match series. Team A is at home and have now won night times in their last 11 on their own patch. Team B has now lost eight of their last 12. Whatever the format, whatever the sport, if you reckon it is Team B who should be the 1.814/5 favourites then let's shake hands and wish each other good luck. If you think it's  Team A, then you've got an introduction to the bizarre vagaries of pricing on reputation.

That is the only possible reason for the English being favourites here. It makes no sense otherwise. Their historical standing in the game, their group of players who are more well-known, the might of their adminsitrative board. Maybe some patriotic money flow as well. 

But the bottom line is that New Zealand are the wrong price to make it a whitewash. The odds should be the other way round.

New Zealand v England third ODI player bets

Root at least showed a semblance of form in game two to suggest he is not in a pit of despair. His 25 off 34 with three fours was promising before he was strangled down the leg side. It's always a dismissal which is considered unlucky for the batter rather than indicating something chronically wrong with his game.

We are encouraged that a decent score is around the corner. We can take others out of the equation here (he is 10/3 for top England bat) by a simple overs play on his runs at an attractive 10/111.91. His mark is 34.5. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes