New Zealand v West Indies Fifth T20 tips: Windies value to chase for equaliser

• New Zealand lead series at 2-1

• Windies need to chase

• Possble big runs at Dunedin

• Shepherd still a bet at 7/24.50

• Chapman back for hosts

New Zealand v West Indies
Thursday 13 November, 00:15
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v West Indies fifth T20 team news

New Zealand still have a 2-1 lead in the series which time forgot. The washout last time out and the impending Ashes battle across the Tasman (and not to mention India set to begin a Test series against South Africa) means that this contest, which was shaping up to be a thriller, has lost some of its gloss.

Just 6.3 overs were possible in Nelson but New Zealand were able to welcome back Mark Chapman after illness. The delay should mean they go with the same line-up. That means no spot for Mitch Hay unless they decide that Daryl Mitchell could do with a break. 

Jimmy Neesham is keeping Zak Foulkes out of the XI with Kyle Jamieson and Jacob Duffy the other pacers. 

Probable New Zealand XI: Conway, Robinson, Ravindra, Chapman, Mitchell, Bracewell, Santner, Neesham, Jamieson, Sodhi, Duffy

West Indies have been striking the ball well in this series, comfortably winning the sixes battle. And yet they find themselves needing a leveller in the last game. So much for the analysts who insist that teams who hit the most sixes win the most games (this is tongue in cheek as the long study shows they are right). 

WI have shuffled their batting order. Brandon King has lost his opening spot to Amir Jangoo. Roston Chase has been in and out. Much of the big boy hitting has come from lower down from the likes of Rovman Powell. Sherfane Rutherford has been included now to add middle-order ballast with Akeal Hosein missing out. For game four they only picked five bowlers

Probable WI XI: Jangoo, Athanaze, Hope, Aughuste, Rutherford, Powell, Holder, Shepherd, Springer, Forde

New Zealand v West Indies fifth T20 ODI pitch report

There have been only four T20i played at University Oval. But they appear to have been played on entirely different surfaces. New Zealand's 219 against Australia in 2021 and their 224 against Pakistan last year suggest road. But Sri Lanka's 141 says otherwise. The clue may be the run-rate in the 15-over thrash for Pakistan's 135 in March.

In the last 10 games domestically, the average first-innings score is 173 with an average of 14.1 sixes. There are signs of a chunky toss bias for the chaser. Unfortunately there is rain forecast. It doesn't look likely to match the downpour in Nelson but one should be aware that overs could be lost. If playing the 20-overs line on the exchange, bets will be void if there is any reduction.

Sportsbook offer a tempter on West Indies total match runs at 166.5 overs. They require 16 overs to be bowled. New Zealand's line is higher at 177.5.

New Zealand v West Indies fifth T20 match prediction

The strategy has not changed in this series. We are keen on West Indies and like to lean on conditions and toss bias for an extra comfort rug. This time advantage is weighted in favour of the team batting second and chasing so we have to bet accordingly.

We also repeat there is no rationale for reckoning the Kiwis are a wrong price here at a prohibitive 1.501/2. The hosts can be a tough side to beat and often have good plans and nous in the field.

But the fact remains they are only really underrated in Test and ODI. There's no evidence they are the crack T20 team that these odds suggest, particularly as they are without four of their best players in the format; Finn Allen, Tim Seifert, Glenn Phillips and Matt Henry. They have thirteen wins in their last 28 at home in T20. That's not the record of a 1.501/2 shot.

We will hope West Indies get the chance to chase a score at 2.962/1. Don't rule out that drifting past 3.002/1 as more money comes into the market closer to the off. 

New Zealand v West Indies fifth T20 player bets

We are on the meter with Romario Shepherd for top West Indies bowler. He is still busting the 30% mark for win rate in a study sample of 24 matches. The fact that he didn't get his full quota in game three has possibly put off some backers but it is rare indeed that Shepherd is constrained in this way in consecutive games. He is their ace death bowler and cheap wickets are always on his radar. Sportsbook offer 7/24.50 that he wins the market. It would be a shame to miss out on that price as he is now overdue. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes