Pakistan v New Zealand ODI Tips: Another Karachi runfest incoming

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Pakistan v New Zealand
Friday 14 February, 09:00
TV: live on YouTube

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI team news

Pakistan have been given an injury worry ahead of the Champions Trophy. Haris Rauf, who missed the win over South Africa on Wednesday, will not feature here and has to be considered a doubt for the tournament with a muscle strain.

Mohammad Hasnain played in his place. Akif Javed has been called up as cover. Akif may have to play in this one to get game time just in case Rauf doesn't make it. Saud Shakeel has come in to bat No 3 ahead of Kamran Ghulam.

Possible Pakistan XI: Fakhar, Babar, Shakeel, Rizwan, Shakeel, Tayyab, Khushdil, Afridi, Naseem, Akif, Abrar

New Zealand are unlikely to risk Rachin Ravindra. The opener is still recovering after a concussion so Devon Conway will open the batting.

There are some suggestions that Tom Latham's style is not suited to these wickets so Mark Chapman, who also offers a bowling option, is a better option. He is a power-packed hitter. 

Possible New Zealand XI: Young, Conway, Williamson, Mitchell, Chapman, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Sears, Henry, O'Rourke

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI pitch report

The Karachi surface, as expected, was a road in the SA game Pakistan managed their highest ODI chase when going after 352 at the venue and they did so with relative ease. Even at 91 for three it didn't look in doubt. A big total is going to be required. We await Sportsbook prices on both teams to score with probable value at 300.

Backing 310, 320 and 330 or more on first-innings are strong options because the surface is so flat each bracket has the value of 20 runs fewer. There is an in-play strategy here also because Pakistan have been dreadful at the death against both New Zealand and South Africa. They conceded 98 in the last six and 87 in the last seven respectively. Adding 120-130 in the last ten at big numbers is an option.

Pakistan v South Africa ODI match prediction

Pakistan are 1.738/11 with New Zealand 2.3411/8. The Kiwis have already beaten Pakistan once and if they win here it will give them a significant edge when the teams meet again on Wednesday in the Champions Trophy.

That contest could be considered a virtual quarter-final given the presence of whipping boys Bangladesh in in their group. The top two go through and with India all-powerful, these two could be scrapping for runners-up.

New Zealand are more efficient in the field and that could make all the difference were they to bat first. Clearly the side batting first has the chance to go big. If it is the Kiwis they flip these odds. That's a simple trade strategy right there.

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI player bets

Putting faith in one man to outscore his team-mates is folly on this wicket. We paid the price last time out when Mohammad Rizwan's 122 not out was a loser. So individual milestones are the way to bet. We have been waiting on a score from Will Young and will keep faith for the third time. Sportsbook offer 2/13.00 about a 50 for the Kiwi opener. He gives us an edge of around 2% on win rate versus implied probability on that market in the last two years. 

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