New Zealand v West Indies Third T20 Tips: Windies batters can set too stiff target

• New Zealand level series at 1-1

• Windies six-hitting not enough

• Saxton Oval major toss bias

• Shepherd still a must bet

• Windies clear value batting first

New Zealand v West Indies
Sunday 9 November, 00:15
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v West Indies second T20 team news

New Zealand levelled the series in Auckland with a strong batting show. They posted an impressive 207 and it served as a good reminder that in this format all it can take is for one man to have a good half an hour. And that man was Mark Chapman.

In the absence of Tim Seifert, he is one of their two best hitters (Tim Robinson the other). He smoked seven sixes to make all the difference. Above him, Devon Conway and Rachin Ravindra had both got bogged down reminding us of the Kiwis' major weakness.

That took the pressure off Daryl Mitchell who was able to strike at more than 200 while Mitch Santner continued honing his finishing power. Santner and Ish Sodhi then took six wickets between them.

Probable New Zealand XI: Conway, Robinson, Ravindra, Chapman, Mitchell, Bracewell, Santner, Foulkes, Jamieson, Sodhi, Duffy

West Indies got close at Eden Park, going down by three runs. And there is two ways of looking at the loss.

You could be left scratching your head as to how the hell they didn't win. They smashed an incredible 18 sixes to New Zealand's 12, a margin usually big enough for the triumph. Look more closely at their top order where three had absolute stinkers and Alick Athanazae had his moments too but for a strike rate of 132.

They should look to resolve that now. Brandon King looks vulnerable to losing his spot to Amir Jangoo. And Ackeem Auguste may lose out to Sherfane Rutehrford. Or vice versa of course.

Possible WI XI: King, Athanaze, Hope, Auguste, Chase, Powell, Holder, Shepherd, Hosein, Forde, Seales

New Zealand v West Indies third T20 ODI pitch report

There have only been three T20i at Saxton Oval, with scores of 187 in 2017, 189 in 2019 and 218 this year. All were won by the side batting first. Domestically, in 15 day games 12 have been won by the side batting first with an RPO of 8.5 in the first dig and 8.1 in the second. 

It is fair to say that we can expect the side batting first to go well and go on to win the game. Therefore West Indies' total match runs at 165.5 could look very cheap indeed. The average runs batting first and second with that domestic filter is 186 and 166. 

Sportsbook go high on the sixes line at 16.5. That will be a popular for overs players. But domestically the average per game is 7.2. That's a stat which is confounding. 

New Zealand v West Indies third T20 match prediction

West Indies have been underrated since ball one in this series and defeat last time isn't going to change that. They are out to 3.17217/100 having been 3.002/1 for game two and 3.309/4 for the first match, which they won.

Consistently these pages have thought they have been good value. That also doesn't change. It is arguable that what we have seen so far are two well-matched teams having a right go at each other. It's closely thought and competitive. In other words there's precious little evidence that the gap in numbers should be too big.

But let's park West Indies for a bit and remember that toss bias just discussed. Should  New Zealand really be no better than 1.444/9 given the importance of the flip? A New Zealand which is marginally in the black with 12 wins in their last 27 at home? No, of course not.

The odds are unlikely to change off the back of the coin flip so if it goes West Indies' way, then the3.17217/100 should be available.

New Zealand v West Indies third T20 player bets

We stick with Romario Shepherd for top West Indies bowler at 4/15.00, despite not getting his full quota last time. That's an error that West Indies rarely repeat twice in succession. Shepherd wins this market 34% of the time from a long study sample of 23 matches. To put that into context, Sportsbook rate him a 20% chance so there is a significant edge in our favour. It is the standout bet in the player markets. And if he doesn't win here we will be backing him next time, too.

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes