India v New Zealand Third ODI Tips: How to bet runfest at Indore

• Series level at 1-1

• New Zealand powered by Mitchell
• Indore surface one for batters
• Milestone runs betting the angle
• Ed has a Betfair Exchange trade angles

India v New Zealand
Sunday January 18, 08.00
TV: Live on TNT

India v New Zealand third ODI team news

India will make a call on whether they stick with Nitish Kumar Reddy in the second all-rounder slot with Washington Sundar absent with injury. Reddy bowled only two overs in a toothless fielding display in defeat last time out.

Ayush Badoni, a part-time spinner, could be an option although the hosts may be concerned short boundaries that will make him vulnerable.

Arshdeep Singh has not played yet in the series. He could come in for Mohammad Siraj. They lacked cunning with the ball in game two and Arshdeep is a specialist with the white ball. 

Possible India XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Iyer, Rahul, Jadeja, Badoni/Reddy,  Harshit, Kuldeep, Arshdeep, Prasidh

New Zealand barely broke a sweat in chasing down 284 in Rajkot. Daryl Mitchell was once again imperious with the bat, this time hitting an unbeaten 131. Will Young made a confidence-restoring 87.

Despite the seven-wicket success to level the series, the Kiwis may make a change. Jayden Lennox, the left-arm spinner, has not disgraced himself but they may want more variation against India's right-handers so Adithya Ashok  comes into contention as he can spin it away.

Possible New Zealand XI: Conway, Nicholls, Young, Mitchell, Phillips, Hay, Bracewell, Foulkes, Jamieson, Clarke, Ashok

India v New Zealand third ODI pitch report

There have been only three ODI in Indore since 2017 but it is fair to reckon that this will be a road. The first-innings scores in those games were 293-385-399. The 385 was by India against New Zealand. Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill both hit centuries. 

Sportsbook's 10/111.91 that both teams score 275 at 10/111.91 is a decent starting point for runs. The 5/42.25 that there is a century in the first innings may also be worth a hit. 

India v New Zealand third ODI match prediction

India are 1.3030/100 for  victory with New Zealand 4.1031/10. Those odds are short on the hosts but do bear in mind they were 1.171/6 for the first match of the series. The Kiwis have been shown to be more than competitive.

The first thing to note is that on a road, India are too skinny because of the threat of conceding a big score if they have to bowl first. If they bat first, however, they will most likely collapse to pre-series prices. 

India batting second is the only possible entry point on the home price. At the break if they are in that 1.804/5 region would be the time to play. Despite the score being tied at 1-1 India really should get up to take the plaudits.

Sportsbook offer 6/42.50 that India win the match and both teams score 275. Given the above, and the Kiwis bat first and go even below par with that score, you have a stonking bet as India would be extremely short. 

India v New Zealand third ODI player bets

For the first two matches we have been on Rohit Sharma to deliver a top-bat win. He has a two-year win rate of 36.8%. We abandon the bet, however, even though Sportsbook's 7/24.50 is value. Faith is retained in the India opener on individual runs markets such as his overs quote at 34.5 at 10/111.91. Backing him for a 50 or ton at 15/82.88 and 9/25.50 is preferred because on a potentially flat batting wicket, we don't have to worry about what his team-mates get.

When Rohit scored a ton in that match against the Kiwis at this venue in 2023 it wasn't enough for the top bat as Gill pipped him by 11. A similar strategy should be applied for the Kiwis. Mitchell, for example, is 13/82.63.

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