New Zealand v South Africa ODI Tips: Kiwis to dominate second-string Saffers

New Zealand v South Africa
Monday 10 February, 04:30
TV: live on YouTubes

New Zealand v South Africa ODI team news

New Zealand produced a typically efficient performance to take the points in the first game of the tri-series against Pakistan on Saturday. They batted first on what looked a flat surface, posted an excellent 330 and then squeezed the life out of the hosts in the chase.

Glenn Phillips was the star. His brutal century lifted the Kiwi batting at a crucial time and was a welcome return to top-bat form for a player who has been a money drain over the last 12 months. Kane Williamson managed a solid half-century in his return. Matt Henry and Mitch Santner then combined for three wickets apiece.

Rachin Ravindra is expected to miss out due to concussion protocols following a nasty blow in the field. Mark Chapman is a like-for-like replacement and his part-time spin will be handy.

Probable New Zealand XI: Young, Chapman, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Sears, Henry, O'Rourke

South Africa have sent a reserve team to compete in what could prove to be an important warm-up for the Champions Trophy. Temba Bavuma, the skip, and Heinrich Klaasen, are present but otherwise nine of this group will play no part in the big event

Wiaan Mulder, the all-rounder returning to fitness, is there while Keshav Maharaj, as senior spinner, completes the number who will stay on. Crucially, though Klaasen and Maharaj will not be available until game two. 

It looks a ridiculously thin unit, particularly with the ball. Given the importance of tweak in game one they appear to have only one option in Senuran Muthusamy. Teenage batter Meeka-eel Prince gets a game

SA XI: Bavuma, Breetzke, Smith, Verreynne, Prince, Mulder, Muthusamy, Mpongwana, Bosch, Peters, Dala

New Zealand v South Africa ODI pitch report

The Lahore track looked a cracker to bat first on in game one. In ODI in the last four years there hasn't been a day match. Stats for first-innings in day-nighters may be considered relevant.

Four of the last six have now busted 310. The run rate is 6.10. The Kiwis should be more than solid to bust a par line of around 310 at even money. It really does look a powderpuff Saffer attack. Decent numbers could be available for 330, 340 and 350.

Pakistan v New Zealand ODI match prediction

The match odds market is wise to expected Kiwi dominance. They are no better than 1.4640/85 against South Africa's second string. Indeed, when looking up at the SA line-up it makes you wonder why they bothered to accept the invitation to play. The squad isn't even balanced. 

We await Sportsbook specials such as New Zealand to hit most fours, sixes and to win the game. In the meantime, an in-play strategy is to consider the Kiwis at decent numbers to chase pretty much anything.

The South Africa batting might be capable of posting 270, by which time we get a few clicks on that New Zealand price. Anything up from 1.758/11 in terms of price is a bet. In terms of runs we would be them to get 350-odd.

New Zealand v South Africa ODI player bets

Will Young had a two-year top-bat win rate of 31% before a disappointing failure when we were on for the Pakistan clash. Sportsbook offer 4/15.00 again and we are absolutely on board with the idea of going in again. However, against a weak attack and on a good pitch, one has to consider that a big score could be pipped. The 15/82.88 for a fifty is also value on win rate on two-year form so that could be the most sensible option.

One of those hitters who could go well is Chapman. He has batted at No 3 in his last game so moving up to open wouldn't be a shock. Sportsbook go 6/17.00. 

Bavuma has four wins in  21 in the last two years. Sportsbook go 3/14.00 and given that he as nothing to beat it is no surprise we don't get win-rate value. Muthusamy is worth an interest as the only spin option for South Africa on top bowler at a generous 9/25.50. 

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