Hawk Eye on New Zealand v Fourth ODI: How do they bet without Kohli?

Ed Hawkins
30 January 2019

Rohit roaring value

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Ed Hawkins previews game four and asks the big questions with Virat Kohli absent in Hamilton on Thursday...

"In the last two years Rohit, with or without Kohli, has been India’s go-to man for this market. He has almost always been overpriced and has delivered 18 times in 46 matches, five more than Kohli"

New Zealand v India
Thursday 31 January 02.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Is Rohit a bet?

With Virat Kohli absent from India's team for this match, it could be argued that Rohit Sharma has little to beat to land yet more top-bat honours. After all, he beat Kohli twice in thrice with Shikhar Dhawan winning the odd one out.

There appears to be some confusion about exactly what price Rohit should be which is why, at the time of writing, Betfair Sportsbook are still yet to put out a price list.

The exchange is up, however, and Rohit gets a 3.185/40 quote. The big question is, then: is that value?

In the last two years Rohit, with or without Kohli, has been India's go-to man for this market. He has almost always been overpriced and has delivered 18 times in 46 matches, five more than Kohli.

On that record,then, Rohit is value. That's 0.63 points in our favour. It might not sound like much but, remember, this time we're betting without Kohli.

While on the subject of matches without the great man, one would think Rohit would have made hay. Unfortunately, India have tended to play without both at the same time in the last five years.

Rohit has played in eight of those 19 matches. They have all come since December 2017 when Rohit has been charged with leading the team. He has top scored four times, which suggests the 3.185/40 is good.

It has been a head-to-head with Dhawan, however, who has won three times. This is the inevitable fly in the ointment. Dhawan is 3.7511/4 on the exchange. His record in the last two years is 11 wins in 47.

Obviously that's not form for odds of that kind. There's a bigger edge with him, though, on betting without Kohli.

Hopefully, Sportsbook will come to the rescue and give us a comfort blanket on the Rohit price. We expected them to go 5/2 Rohit but the 11/5 is acceptable

Foursome India

We've said New Zealand are the value on the most sixes market until we are blue in the face. We also dissected the sixes market here, which is worth a read.

There's nothing wrong with betting the Kiwis at 6/5 in Hamilton, even though they were beaten for the first time in the series last time out at Bay Oval. Another bet we've banged on about is Matt Henry for top Kiwi bowler. Sportsbook will probably go 9/2. We rate him 13/8. Neither us will be proved right because he's unlikely to play but you won't be charged.

If you're looking for a fresh angle, there's some interest in most fours. New Zealand are 11/10 and India 10/11 with the tie at 8s.

India are the right favourites for this one, proof that ODI are a more subtle art. They average 22.5 fours per match in the last 12 months, 23.1 in the last two years and 22.1 on the road. Compare this to New Zealand's 18.1, 21.2 and 20.8 respectively and the odds are right.