The Betfair Contrarian: Why David Miliband won't be next Labour leader

UK Politics / The Betfair Contrarian / 12 May 2010 / 1 Comments

David Miliband is big favourite to succeed Gordon Brown as Labour leader

"A contest between Balls and Miliband would doubtless be hyped as Brown's boy against Blair's, which could undermine Miliband's bid, as well as opening the floor to a third contender untainted by all that baggage."

Tony Blair called him the "Wayne Rooney of the cabinet" and Alan Johnson has backed his bid to replace Gordon Brown. So why does the Betfair Contrarian believe that David Miliband will not be the next Labour leader?

The papers couldn't get rid of Gordon Brown, a rogue Sky News microphone didn't do the trick and even the electorate couldn't finish him off. In the end though, all it took was for Nick Clegg to give the Tories a flash of his ankle and Gordon's Scottish holiday could begin. David Miliband is the overwhelming [1.43] favourite in the queue to replace him, but the Contrarian has his doubts, especially as even his own brother Ed [9.8] looks set to stand against him. Here's why you should lay the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs.

He's had his chances

Brown's enemies within the Labour party were eager for Miliband to make an assault on the leadership ahead of the election, and his failure to do so has led to him being considered a bottler in some quarters. The decision not to oppose the Prime Minister may have been honourable, or it may have come about due to fear of how the public would react, but either way, his critics can point to it as evidence that he lacks the required ruthless streak to lead the party, especially as a certain amount of culling will be required over the summer.

The Brownites will be backing Ed Balls

While there's doubtless a joke about the desirability of a vote of confidence from Gordon Brown, there are still plenty of Brown loyalists in the Labour party who would take note were the Scot's protege Ed Balls to stand. Any contest between Balls and Miliband would doubtless be hyped as Brown's boy against Blair's, which could undermine Miliband's bid, as well as opening the floor to a third contender untainted by all that baggage.

Its sometimes a disadvantage to be the early leader

No one has formally declared an intention to stand, perhaps fearful of stepping into the spotlight prematurely and struggling to sustain a campaign. Miliband, whether he likes it or not, is already centre stage. Remember how David Davis was clear favourite at the start of the Tory contest in 2005?" says the Times. Davis was thought to have lost his campaign after starting as the favourite after expectations were raised too high in the early months and the party received his speech coolly at the party conference weeks before the ballot.

Miliband's public image isn't in great nick

It's not just the bottler tag that weighs down Miliband; the unflattering Banana Man nickname doesnt help either, following an unwise decision to be photographed outside a Labour party conference holding a banana, and he regularly gets picked on by the right-wing press for being nerdy.

And don't rule out Andy Burnham

One of the few Labour party members to have emerged from the post-election chaos with an enhanced reputation is the outgoing Health Secretary Andy Burnham. He was the first senior figure to publicly accept that Labour were wrong to cling to power at all costs despite finishing a distant second in the election and was also refreshingly contemptuous of the chances of a Lib-Lab alliance, a show of honesty that has seen his price shorten to [15.0] in the leadership race betting. Unlike many of the other candidates, he'll have won the respect of the right-wing press and public for helping speed up the changeover of power, and his judgement that Labour should head into the next election as the opposition should ultimately prove a shrewd one. Unlike Balls and Miliband, he is also free of ties to Brown and Blair, while he is regularly described as telegenic in the media, and is also a capable talker.

Comments (1)

1. Barbara Stevens | 15 September 2010

   I'm not impressed with either of them. None have talked about the big issue from the last election, immigration, it hasn't gone away. There are far to many in the country and it should be stopped while we sort out the mess and deport those here illegally.
   On the subject of the financial crisis, why as Labour, Tory too, given aid to foreign countries while we borrow to furnish it, and our own have to face severe cuts. You tell that to the people, why. I've yet to hear one politician explain honestly this question. Charity begins at home, and its our money they spend like smarties, they should remember what the people tell them and not do what party dogma dictates. We're fed up with all of them.