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London Mayor Odds: Boris to be London's slave?

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Boris Johnson's announcement that he is descended from slaves appears to have had no impact on the betting, with Livingstone remaining slightly behind the Tory. Chicken Dinner look at the current situation...

Apparently operating under the assumption that whatever happens in America eventually ends up here, Boris Johnson's most newsworthy contribution to these early stages of the campaign to become next mayor of London on May 1 has been to announce his descent from slaves. Across the Atlantic, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are grinding out their campaigns delegate by delegate, trying to reach out to constituencies that divide across bafflingly complex race lines. In comparison, the sight of Boris Johnson, London's whitest man, trying to construct a compelling slave story for himself has only served to add to the capital's stockpiles of bewilderment. The mystery as to how he intends to run the capital remains as impenetrable as ever.

One can only assume that his decision to put his slave roots on record is a misguided attempt to undo the damage he causes almost every time he opens his mouth on the subject of race. Amongst his most high profile vote-wrecking soundbites were his referring to black children as "piccaninnies" and his description of the population of Papua New Guinea as a bunch of vagrant cannibals.

Amazingly, given that at best Johnson's comments are a distraction and a reminder of the public relations disaster that threatens whenever his lips part, a YouGov poll conducted for ITN at the end of last month shows Johnson five points ahead of Ken Livingstone, with Boris on 44%, Ken on 39% and Brian Paddick on 12%. Livingstone's people are claiming that their polling still has him ahead, but even here the advantage is only a couple of points.

Now that the budget is out of the way, the campaigning - and bickering - can at last start in earnest. Speaking today at the Conservative Party's spring conference, Bojo said, "To my mind London is, and always has been, one of the greatest cities on earth. But for the past few years it hasn't been a great place for all Londoners to live in. I think that is largely down to the impact of Ken Livingstone and the Labour government." As opening salvos go, it's possible Ken Livingstone didn't even realize he'd been hit. In his speech, Johnson also claimed he would be looking to improve public services, particularly housing, transport and policing.

Ken Livingstone responded by putting the boot into Bojo's figures for transport spending, claiming he'd discovered a £20 million hole in the Tory's plan, which he described as being in "meltdown." His attempt to mathematically dismantle his rival's proposal, however, was even harder to fathom - and less interesting - than Johnson's meandering description of how he is really a slave trapped inside a rich white man's body.

Mayor Livingstone also offered his own mini-transport promise: that he would cut child road deaths in the capital in half by 2010. You would struggle to find a single voter offended by such an objective, but the means by which that goal is to be achieved will antagonize plenty - "more pedestrian crossings and giving pedestrians longer to cross at traffic lights - even if it means cars have to wait a few seconds longer." Drivers of London, prepare for a difficult month, blood pressure-wise.