BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy Betting: GGL can go deep in Bucharest again
After advising a lay of Rafa Nadal last week in Monte-Carlo Sean Calvert is back to his favourite pastime of trying to find a double figure priced outright winner on the ATP Tour, with Bucharest the chosen venue in week 16...
"Both Rosol and GGL have good memories of this event and they look the two best options to oppose Monfils with in that bottom half of the draw."
The clay court tennis continues in Europe in week 16, with two red dirt tournaments in Barcelona and Bucharest.
The latter event, the BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy often produces a decent-priced winner or finalist and I seem to recall Lukas Rosol bagging this trophy at around [101.0] a couple of years ago.
Last week's bets produced some success with those who layed the [3.0] on Rafa Nadal profiting when the Spaniard fell in the semi finals, while those on Milos Raonic were unlucky again.
The Canadian's draw opened up as I had hoped when Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka fell early, but Raonic injured a metatarsal and was unable to compete against Tomas Berdych in the quarter final.
Week 16 sees the stars come out in force at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, where Nadal, David Ferrer, Kei Nishikori, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Marin Cilic are set to play and it's hard to see past the front three in the betting there.
Nadal is too short by far for me and I'd be looking at Ferrer or Nishikori to land the title there, with preference for Ferrer at [9.0].
But there's much more chance of a decent-priced winner in Bucharest, where the top seeds are Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils.
Lamonf fooled a few into believing he had grown up a bit last week when he produced some fine tennis to beat Federer and Grigor Dimitrov, but incredibly he gave up before the start of his semi final with Berdych.
"My game doesn't give him trouble at all. I am not even frustrated, because I knew it would happen beforehand. I hope I will find a solution someday," said Monfils, displaying his weak mental approach once more.
As a consequence of the win over Federer on the clay he's a [3.5] favourite for this tournament and for me the chances of him playing well all week are too slim for that to be regarded as a great price.
Monfils also has a terrible record in finals of 5-17 at tour level, with only one win from his last seven finals going back to January 2012, so he's not one to be risking at short prices.
Indeed, on clay his record is even worse, with one title from five finals on the dirt, with the one win coming way back in 2005.
So, it could pay to oppose Lamonf in that bottom half and for me the best options are either Lukas Rosol or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.
I seem to recall backing Rosol last year at a much bigger price and the Czech looks a little skinny at around [17.0] this time, with GGL my preferred option.
The Spaniard ran into some inspired tennis from the rotund wild card Lamine Ouahab in Casablanca last time out and he'll be looking for a good week in either Bucharest or Estoril ahead of the remaining Masters 1000s.
Garcia-Lopez made the final the last time he played here in 2013 and he was beaten by Rosol that year when the Czech was a man on a mission after the death of his father.
Both Rosol and GGL have good memories of this event then, and they look the two best options to oppose Monfils with in that bottom half of the draw.
GGL has been playing some fine stuff by and large over the last season or so and he's made a good start to 2015 with one title to his name already.
Simone Bolelli is another option, while Andreas Haider-Maurer might well be on a few shortlists after a good 2015 on the clay so far.
Mikhail Youzhny looks a spent force, but Steve Darcis could be interesting at a big price in what is quite an open section of the draw.
In the top half Simon's record of 18-3 makes him the favourite in that section, but he hasn't made a final on clay since his last title here in 2012 and his body tends to let him down too often these days.
The Frenchman's defensive style is seemingly beginning to take its toll on his body and I prefer others to Simon this week.
Janko Tipsarevic continues his comeback from injury, but Serbian compatriot Viktor Troicki looks a likelier winner at around [15.0] and I prefer that price to Simon's [5.5] quote.
Borna Coric might do better than [51.0] suggests, while Flo Mayer back from injury could cause a few surprises in the section where Jiri Vesely is regarded as the second likeliest semi finalist.
Ivo Karlovic is the shortest price in that section and he can play on clay, as he showed again by making the Dusseldorf final on the red dirt last season.
But I'm going to side with GGL this week in what looks another open renewal of the BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy.
Back Garcia-Lopez to win Bucharest at [15.0]
Tennis 2015 season P&L
Profit based on £10 stake per bet = + £51.60