Wimbledon Saturday Tips: Take a chance on Danielle Collins on Day 6

• First set key for Collins

• Cocciaretto can continue run

• Claim £5 bet by backing Mensik Bet Builder

• Samsonova's strong start

There have been signs of improvement for Iga Swiatek on the grass courts this season. Nevertheless, it is clear the surface remains a puzzle for her that she is constantly trying to solve and she might be in a spot of bother in round three.

Danielle Collins has made no secret about her dislike for Iga, and will be fired up to send her foe packing in round three.

Elsewhere, I like the chances of Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Liudmila Samsonova to continue their impressive form.

Jakub Mensik is the focus of today's Betfair Bet Builder. Back my tip on the Czech wonderkid's match and receive a free £5 bet.

Collins knows how to beat Iga

Even though Iga Swiatek has defeated Danielle Collins on five occasions there is a persistent sense that the American is a bad match-up for the Pole. There is also bad blood between the duo, with Collins making several high profile negative media comments about today's opponent.

Collins has proven she can defeat Swiatek, doing so twice, and both at notable events. The American ended Iga's chances at the 2022 Australian Open and she humbled the clay court maestro in straight sets at their most recent meeting in Rome this year.

If there is one thing that Iga does not like it is being rushed. She loves to take command of rallies, controlling the tempo from the back of the court. However, Collins challenges Iga's plan A and it is clear that it disrupts her.

Collins is a player that blows hot and cold, but when she is on her game she is a match for anyone. This Wimbledon she has appeared relaxed, and has blasted through her opening round opponents in comprehensive fashion.

Swiatek is gradually piecing things together on grass, but it remains a surface that she is uncertain of. Her first two matches have shown ups and downs, and there has been an adaptation period required for her to get it right. Wimbledon remains her least favourite hunting ground relative to other Slams, with a 2023 quarter-final her best showing. She has only contested round four one other time.

The first set will be key in this contest. The winning player has always started strongly in this match-up. That to my mind spells trouble for Iga who is requiring a set to get to grips with her opponent.

If Collins is in the mood, and her form to this point suggests that is the case, it may mean another early Wimbledon exit for the Pole.

It might seem an audacious tip to some, but if you believe Collins wins this match then backing her to do so in straight sets is the way to play this. On the Betfair Sportsbook a Collins 2-0 set victory is 4/15.00.

That is where the pre-match value exists. However, you can never discount a champion of Iga's quality and it will be worth following this match live to get a sense of how it is going. 

Cocciaretto can continue Cinderella run

I was not at all surprised to see Elisabetta Cocciaretto defeat Jessica Pegula in round one. The Italian has both the game style and the personality to down a player like the American, especially in novelty conditions such as those at SW19.

It is clear that Cocciaretto is relishing the courts at Wimbledon, enjoying the low bounce and firing powerful and dynamic groundstrokes that cut through a second opponent on Thursday. You almost felt sorry for opponent Katie Volynets who was blown away in a 6/0 opening set.

Cocciaretto should have nothing to fear from the challenge of Belinda Bencic, who despite navigating her way to round three has done so by getting through a scrap against Elsa Jacquemot in round two.

Bencic can be tied up in knots on natural surfaces, with her career record showing a clear preference for hard court tennis.

The form of Cocciaretto has caught the eye and I view the Betfair Exchange price of 2.56/4 as standout value.

Mensik Bet Builder

We have had success throughout this tournament by backing select players including Jakub Mensik to come through matches with victories secured in complicated fashion.

The young Czech star is a player on an undeniable rise, but he does produce inconsistent levels throughout his matches.

He is a deserving favourite to get the better of Italy's Flavio Cobolli in the third round, with the Italian enjoying a soft draw to this stage.

Mensik has the tools to decide this match on his terms, and Cobolli will do his best to capitalise on the wonderkid's drops in intensity. The Czech has dropped sets in both matches so far, otherwise won in dominant fashion.

Using the Betfair Bet Builder there is value in backing Jakub Mensik to win the match and over 20.5 games at 6/42.50

Samsonova like a knife through butter

With all the high profile exits from Wimbledon there has been less attention for players under the radar and showing strong form.

That is certainly the case for Liudmila Samsonova, who many fairly consider a dark horse to win this most open of majors. The Russian has several grass court titles to her collection, and has started Wimbledon like a house on fire.

Samsonova is a power hitter, and she is usually the player deciding the points. That spells trouble for Daria Kasatkina, who as everyone knows is vulnerable to being outgunned by in-form power players.

Kasatkina has not been in great form of late, at least relative to her own standards, and her early rounds have been a grind. The now Australian citizen faced 13 break points against clay courter Emiliana Arango in the opening round, who couldn't have looked a fish more out of water had she tried when trying to navigate the grass courts.

It doesn't bode well for Dasha, and with Samsonova playing as she is the 1/12.00 on a 2-0 Samsonova set win stands out.

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