Wimbledon Men's Final: How to back an Alcaraz victory at 8/5

• Generational rivals face off for first time in a Wimbledon final

• Alcaraz has won their last five, but Sinner has been close

• Find out how to back Alcaraz at 8/52.60

• Suggested Bet Builder lines to consider for showpiece match

Cancel whatever you're doing on Sunday as the latest Jannik Sinner versus Carlos Alcaraz match is here.

If this meeting is anything like their last - a five and a half hour thriller at Roland Garros in which Alcaraz reversed a two set deficit and won a final set tie-break overturning 1.011/100 on the Betfair Exchange in the process - then you won't regret dedicating your afternoon to this.

Before a ball was hit, a Sinner versus Alcaraz final was my expected outcome.

There is little doubting that these guys play each other close, yet Alcaraz has consistently found a way, winning all five of their encounters since the start of 2024. 

However, Sinner held multiple match points against Alcaraz in their most recent meeting, supposedly played on a surface where the Spaniard holds his biggest match-up advantage, and it is a matter of time before the Italian starts winning his fair share.

Alcaraz is trading around 1.865/6 on the Betfair Exchange, and that price is more or less justified in my opinion.

How they match up

You could make a credible case for either man winning this match, yet it is reasonable given Alcaraz's record against Sinner that he is favourite to get the win.

The two match-up perfectly. On the one-hand is Sinner, who plays the perfect brand of baseline tennis. He serves huge, and controls rallies with deep, powerful and flat hitting. His is the style of play that most players try to emulate, but nobody does it better than him.

Alcaraz on the other hand is less consistent, not only in his week to week results but also in his temperament. The Spaniard can go through peaks and troughs in a match, with his concentration wandering, but he can hyperfocus when the scoreboard demands it and typically comes up with the goods.

Take Alcaraz's match with Taylor Fritz for example. He broke in the very first game of the match, and for the first 10 minutes toyed with the American. An hour into the contest the scoreboard was level at a set apiece, as Alcaraz's focus disappeared. In set three it was Alcaraz who was again miles on top. Then in set four, Fritz held two set points before Alcaraz stepped up his level to stop the American from reaching a deciding set.

There are always ups and downs in what Alcaraz produces on court and it is very difficult for him to maintain the focus and intensity to produce his best tennis from start to finish.

The French Open final was similar. Alcaraz started extremely cold, and it was not until he was two sets and a break down that he clicked into gear.

It was interesting to hear what Fritz had to say about his experience of playing these two generational rivals. Remarking after his Friday defeat to Alcaraz he said, "Sinner has a more powerful serve; it's harder to break him. However, from the baseline, he plays flatter and more predictable. He does what he does very well, but at least I know what to expect. Carlos, on the other hand, is unpredictable. He uses slices, runs to the net, drop shots. He has so many different ways of playing. Jannik plays more direct."

Back Alcaraz to win close contest

I would be very surprised if either man was able to win this in straight sets. Sinner's consistent and perfectly executed textbook tennis will bag him at least a set, and possibly two (or even three should Alcaraz not produce the answers under pressure). 

Alcaraz always seems to find a way but the margins he plays with are so tight that one of these days it won't go his way. However, based on their head to head and my expectations for this match I see value in backing Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set at 8/52.60.

Although Alcaraz has won all five of their most recent matches, Sinner has bagged the opening set in four of them. 

Alcaraz to lose the first set and win the match is a tempting 9/25.50

Bet Builder selection box

Across the Wimbledon fortnight, Betfair has been running a promotion where if you place a Bet Builder on any match you receive a free £5 bet.

Here are some lines to consider adding to your own Bet Builders.

This duo has met three times at a Grand Slam and all have gone to at least four sets, and their two most recent and relevant matches have gone the full five sets. Over 41.5 total games is reasonable at 1/12.00.

There is so little to pick between these guys and that has played out on the scoreboard. Remarkably six of the last ten sets they have played have ended in tiebreaks, including three at the French Open. Over 1.5 tiebreaks is an appealing 2/13.00.

Both men have been serving well this fortnight and are odds on to defeat their assigned Aces lines. 

In the slow clay conditions of Roland Garros they scored a healthy 15 Aces between them, but at Wimbledon they've been consistently chalking up the Ace count with Alcaraz notching 75 across his six matches at a rate of 12.5 Aces per match, or 3.26 per set he has played.

Sinner has hit fewer at 54 across his six matches at a rate of 9 Aces per match. However, he has played less sets than Alcaraz, and has a similar 3.17 Aces per set average. 

Given this match should go at least four sets I can see them bettering their assigned Ace lines. Sinner is 4/61.67 to hit more than 9.5 Aces, while Alcaraz is 8/111.73 to hit over 10.5.

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