Wimbledon Women's Semi-Final Tips: Sabalenka and Swiatek on final collision course

• Siegemund exposed how to beat Sabalenka

• Anisimova lost important recent meetings to world number one

• Iga's improvements on grass should carry her to Wimbledon final

• Bet Builder and handicap tip for women's semi-finals

Aryna Sabalenka looks on course to compete in her fourth consecutive Grand Slam final, an impressive run that goes some way to explaining why she is a clear world number one.

Attempting to stop her is Amanda Anisimova, who holds a 5-3 career head to head record against the Belarusian, and who this column tipped to win the tournament at 40.039/1. Anisimova is not without a chance, but Sabalenka will likely show her class.

I advise a Betfair Bet Builder in that one, which if you back will be rewarded with a free £5 if you haven't already taken advantage of Betfair's offer throughout the tournament.

Meeting Sabalenka in the final is likely to be Iga Swiatek, who starts a reasonable favourite to see off the challenge of Belinda Bencic. I would be surprised if that is not a closely fought battle, but I expect Iga will have the edge.

Anisimova lacks Siegemund playbook

In Tuesday's quarter-final Laura Siegemund showed what you need to do to defeat world number one Aryna Sabalenka.

The German veteran worked Sabalenka from pillar to post, but came up short struggling to hold onto her lead. It was not until the very final stage when Sabalenka looked to be in charge.

It was a huge test, but one that Sabalenka survived and she remains the reasonable favourite to win a first Wimbledon title.

Sabalenka trails Amanda Anisimova in their career head to head, losing five of their previous eight encounters. Yet, Sabalenka has won two of the last three, and both that have taken place at a Grand Slam.

Most of Anisimova's wins occurred prior to Sabalenka becoming the world's top player, and prior to the American's much publicised 2023 career break. Many improvements have appeared in the Belarusian's game in that time.

It is not impossible for Anisimova to win this match. She has the power and flat hits that work well on this surface. However, in a contest of trading groundstrokes Sabalenka will win her fair share while also possessing layers of variety in her game that most opponents - including Anisimova - lack.

The greatest obstacle between Sabalenka and the Wimbledon title remains bringing her best on the big occasion when victory is in sight. This was a crucial determinant in her defeats in both the Australian and French Open Finals.

This is the first Grand Slam semi-final for Anisimova since she was defeated in three sets by Ash Barty at Roland Garros in 2019. It was a decent showing considering the stakes.

We are holding a ticket on Anisimova to win this tournament at 40.039/1. Anisimova is now 8.88/1 to win the tournament. She has given a good run for our money. 

However, I do expect Sabalenka will be too strong and her extra weapons will come to her aid. Anisimova can be competitive and I will be cheering on her victory. For this match I believe there is value in a Betfair Bet Builder combining a Sabalenka match win, with over 20.5 total games in the match, which pays out at 17/102.70.

Swiatek can expect tough Bencic battle

The second semi-final features a meeting of two former Wimbledon junior champions enjoying career best runs in the women's event.

2013 winner Belinda Bencic and 2018 champion Iga Swiatek know each other well, and both have reason to fancy their chances of reaching a first final at SW19.

They played out a 2023 epic in the round of 16, in which Bencic held match-points in set two before going down in three sets. There was very little to separate them on that occasion, and in current form little reason to expect this won't be close again.

Understandably, Swiatek is favoured to come through this match opening at 1/31.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook. However, I'd be surprised if Bencic is unable to hang with the Pole throughout this contest.

Swiatek leads their head to head by three wins to one, and only in their first meeting was there a decisive winner. The other matches have been settled by three or four game scorelines.

It is difficult not to be impressed by Swiatek's improvements on grass this year. She has made a substantial effort to adapt to the conditions, with her movement arguably the best of any player remaining in the draw.

Swiatek is a rightful favourite, but Bencic will keep it close. Markets are still being formed at the time of writing, but the 1.865/6 on the Betfair Exchange for Bencic to cover a 4.5 game handicap makes sense.

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