Wimbledon 2025 Women's Singles Preview: 39/1 Anisimova can take advantage of soft quarter

• Shaky Sabalenka too short

• Queens finalist Anisimova appeals at 40.039/1

• Long odds Xinyu Wang can surprise

• Is Swiatek getting it right?

There is little doubt about who the best player in the women's game is right now. Aryna Sabalenka has cemented her status as world number one in the past 12 months, and has made the final in five of the past six Grand Slams where she has been fit to start the tournament.

However, despite consistently high form the Belarusian has lost both major finals she has contested in 2025 and much like Jannik Sinner in the men's sport is yet to win a Grand Slam away from her favoured hard courts.

Sabalenka is a clear and deserving favourite for Wimbledon. If you were to construct the ideal player for this surface you would pick her. She possesses a huge serve, can hit her opponents off the court and has recently developed variety that her elite peers would dream of having in their arsenal.

Yet, at 4.03/1 on the Betfair Exchange it is difficult to get excited in Sabalenka's price.

This is a player that has been unable to perform at her best in the biggest matches, and that has never made it beyond the semi-final stage in SW19.

Picking a winner at Wimbledon is like picking a needle in a haystack. The past two editions have seen Marketa Vondrousova win at 140/1141.00 and fellow Czech player Barbora Krejcikova at 66/167.00. 

Although in retrospect I can understand why they were able to win, it was nevertheless a surprise at the time and there are lessons learned from Wimbledons past that can stand us in good stead for spotting the value this time around.

Let's take a look at each quarter and see if we can find the elusive needle.

Stacked draw for Sabalenka

The tournament favourite won't be pleased with her very tough route to the title.

Although she should comfortably negotiate the first few rounds she will face either Vondrousova - who recently beat her on the grass in Berlin en-route to winning the title - or British star Emma Raducanu.

In Berlin, Vondrousova carved up Sabalenka and the former champion will fancy her chances again on the scene of her career best triumph.

It doesn't get much easier after that as two time semi-finalist Elina Svitolina may be lurking in round four. The Ukrainian has made the quarter-final in both of this year's majors and is not without a chance with her resilient game-style on an awkward grass court.

There's also 2024 semi-finalist Donna Vekic potentially waiting in the last eight, but that would require the Croatian defeating Australian Open champion Madison Keys.

The 2025 version of Madison Keys is the real deal, and has made a good fist of backing up her major title win in Melbourne with consistent showings across the season. Keys arguably plays her best stuff on a grass court and there is no reason why she can't topple Sabalenka in the quarter-final.

At 23.022/1 on the Betfair Exchange, Keys is a value price amongst the top-end players to leave Wimbledon as champion, and she's most definitely worth backing to win her quarter at 4/15.00.

In-form Anisimova a contender

In a very open tournament, the second quarter of the draw might be the most open.

2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini is the highest seed but at 36.035/1 on the Betfair Exchange there's little expectation that she'll repeat her amazing run this time round.

The second highest seed, Qinwen Zheng 3433/1, has shown signs of improvement on grass this season but her performance data still ranks her outside the top 20 most likely winners. The Chinese player is powerful but has found slower and higher bouncing conditions more to her liking. The grass courts of Wimbledon typically bounce low, and skid fast.

There is an opportunity for a player outside of the highest ranked names to make their mark, and several clear candidates to do so.

Amongst the main contenders are Amanda Anisimova, who captured the biggest title of her career in Qatar this year, and Linda Noskova who has the power game to defeat most players on this surface. 

Unfortunately the Czech indicated in Bod Homburg this week that she needs more miles on the clock as she capitulated to Jessica Pegula when serving for a match she should have won.

Anisimova is a former Wimbledon quarter-finalist, and also made the final at Queens Club a couple of weeks ago. At 40.039/1 Anisimova is not a bad shout.

I also see reason in backing the highly talented Diana Shnaider who I think has all the tools at her disposal to be a consistent Wimbledon challenger in the coming years. Shnaider is a lefty that has both power and craft to play with, and already has a grass court title to her name.

At 120.0119/1 Shnaider should be on your trading portfolio.

Pegula heads weak 3rd quarter

Jessica Pegula has become a routine fixture of the sport's top five in recent years. However, rarely is she thought of as a Grand Slam contender.

Yes, she made the US Open final last season, but ultra consistency doesn't typically earn the biggest titles.

Pegula is a deserving favourite to emerge the winner of this quarter, which is lacking in obvious challengers. Wonderkid Mirra Andreeva is seeded 7th but has appeared very uncomfortable on the grass in recent matches.

Had they been in better fitness this would be a great draw for the Czech duo of 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova and two-time quarter-finalist Karolina Muchova. 

Krejcikova has won a couple of matches in the grass season but it's unlikely she'll go close to defending her crown as she's lacking in match fitness and was forced to withdraw from Eastbourne this week having felt the load of back to back matches.

Muchova is an extremely high talent but injuries have taken their toll, and she has complained of being unable to hit backhands without encountering pain. She might be headed for an early exit having drawn Xinyu Wang who outplayed Marketa Vondrousova for much of their Berlin final last weekend. At 130.0129/1 the Chinese is worth some coffee money, and is most definitely of interest at 14/115.00 to win Quarter 3.

Swiatek sussing it out?

Typically Iga Swiatek arrives in London fresh off an exhausting and all conquering clay court season. 

After an underwhelming clay campaign, this year Iga has more gas in the tank, and has been able to pay greater focus to mastering a surface that has previously proven her undoing.

The Polish star is set to contest the Bad Homburg final this weekend, and it shouldn't be forgotten that she is a former junior Wimbledon champion. At 10.09/1 there is some slight appeal in the five time major champion, although in such an open draw there are more appealing prices.

Quarter winner markets have yet to appear for the women's draw but I can see reason in backing Swiatek in that setting.

Part of my faith in Swiatek is due to my lack of confidence in her main competition. French Open champion Coco Gauff will find conditions in London far less to her liking than the boggy and windy environment that allowed her to play the physical, mentally strenuous tennis that she excels at.

Both of Gauff's majors have been won in slow conditions, and although commentators typically point out the slowing down of the surface at Wimbledon it will never become as heavy as the clay courts of Paris this year, or the sticky and sluggish conditions that were present when she won in New York in 2023.

The betting favourite to win this quarter is 2022 champion Elena Rybakina, but I struggle to imagine her as a repeat champion. The Kazakhstani has a game that is perfectly suited to grass court tennis, but that 2022 run is looking more and more like a one off. 

For all her talent Rybakina struggles to make the best of favourable draws in big tournaments and I can recall many high profile matches where she is competitive and arguably the better player but has ended on the losing side.

At the French Open, Rybakina blew a set and break lead against Swiatek who although improved her level, was fully encouraged to do so by a nervy opponent. Likewise in Berlin last week, Rybakina held four consecutive match points against Aryna Sabalenka only to fall to defeat.

At 8.07/1 outright I don't share the market's belief in Rybakina as second favourite.

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