Wimbledon 2025 Men's Singles Preview: 59/1 Fritz the standout value bet

• Alcaraz the player to beat

• Tough draw for Britain's Draper

• 59/160.00 Fritz can go deep and looks the pick of the big odds bets

• Big priced jokers dotted throughout draw

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Wimbledon favourites Alcaraz and Sinner far ahead of the rest

A couple of weeks ago one of the greatest tennis matches of all-time was played out in the French Open final when Carlos Alcaraz defeated his generational rival Jannik Sinner.

Sinner led by two sets to love, and held three match points in the third at which point the Betfair Exchange was all but certain of his victory. The Italian only backable at the lowest 1.011/100 price possible.

But Alcaraz survived, and staged a stunning comeback to edge the contest in a dramatic final set tiebreak.

Chances are they might do it all over again at Wimbledon. 

The top two seeds lead the pack with Alcaraz a secure 2.3211/8 favourite on the Exchange, and Sinner close behind him at 3.3512/5. The duo has split each major title since the start of 2024, and such is their dominance over the rest it would be no surprise to see them slug it out in London too.

However, there are some big priced players capable of enjoying a good run this fortnight and by looking at the draw quarter by quarter we can see where value might be found...

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Big priced banana skins in Sinner section

The world number one Jannik Sinner will be reasonably happy with his draw.

His biggest challenge on paper is that of compatriot Lorenzo Musetti who according to grass court data is the fourth best player on this surface. However, Musetti has been unable to show that form recently having been unable to play since injuring his left thigh caused by the physical exertion of trying to hang with Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open semi-final.

Musetti is a classy player with supreme touch and an ability to twist defence into attack in a flash. He made the semi-final here last year but at 180.0179/1 in the Betfair Exchange outright market confidence is low this time around.

Personally I feel that is much too high for such a talented player and although it might seem unlikely that Musetti beats Sinner, the surface could play in his favour. After all, Sinner doesn't have a confirmed pedigree on the turf with only one career grass court title on his name, and a defeat in a warm-up event to Alexander Bublik who he had destroyed for the loss of only six games at the French Open.

Of course you are taking a chance on Musetti's fitness, but provided he has had sufficient rest he screams value. Get past Sinner and those odds will tumble.

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That is especially true when looking at the seeded players in this quarter. Grigor Dimitrov is on the wane, unable to stay fit for any length of time. Denis Shapovalov was a Wimbledon semi-finalist in 2021 but there are no obvious signs that he can reproduce that form. Tommy Paul is a steady Eddy and made the quarter-finals last year but he lacks the X-factor to trouble the elite players when it really matters. 

Ben Shelton is a player I usually like backing at Grand Slams, but he hasn't quite got to grips with adapting his game to grass. Brandon Nakashima is a business card and handshake type of player, lacking imagination and doing his best work on the week to week tour.

There is an alternative option to Musetti at a big price in the form of Ugo Humbert at enormous odds of 610.0609/1. He loves grass and has been enjoying a return to form and fitness in Eastbourne this week.

Of course it is tough to look past Sinner but both Musetti and Humbert are unreasonably large outright prices and look reasonable to add to any trading portfolios.

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Djokovic well-placed to go deep

Even though he is now 38-years old, expectations have not lowered for Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon.

Last year the 25-time Grand Slam winner was able to reach the final on one leg, and he will feel he has a chance of challenging for an eighth Wimbledon title. Incredibly, the Serbian has made the final in SW19 in each of the last six editions.

I believe that Wimbledon provides the best opportunity for Djokovic to win a Grand Slam in this last stage of his career, even though I still wouldn't back him to do so even at odds of 8.415/2.

Nobody moves better than Novak on the grass, and he knows how to win matches on this most awkward of surfaces. The rank and file of the sport - that perhaps can outwork him physically on clay or hard court these days - still don't know how to better him on grass.

That is bad news for Britain's Jack Draper who is seeded higher than Djokovic at a career high four in the world. The Londoner will have high hopes for a decent showing at Wimbledon but I can't see him beating Djokovic, and he has a tough task earlier in the draw.

Draper's French Open was ended by an inspired Alexander Bublik who is far from a natural on the clay and employed a high risk approach to score an upset fourth round win.

Bublik is in great shape, and continued his form by lifting the title in Halle with notable victories over Sinner and Daniil Medvedev along the way. The Kazakhstani has an elite serve, and the flair to do well on grass and has been well-supported in the markets where he is currently a 65.064/1 sixth favourite outright.

Draper and Bublik are scheduled to meet in round three, and the winner of that will be favourite to reach the quarter-final where Djokovic is likely to be waiting.

From the chasing pack I can only imagine Jakub Mensik 170.0169/1 spoiling the chances of these three players but this is only the teenager's second season on grass and it likely comes too soon.

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Fritz my final fancy

In my pre-draw column for Betfair I highlighted the chances of Taylor Fritz to have a good tournament. I am encouraged by his draw and believe he remains good value to make the semi-finals.

Fritz has been drawn in the same quarter as third seed Alexander Zverev, who he has consistently defeated over the past two years. After their latest meeting - the final of the grass court event in Stuttgart won in straight sets by the American - Zverev joked, "I'm tired of you, I don't want to see you over the next two or three years - stay away from me."

The fifth seeded Fritz has a tricky opening assignment against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard who is ranked second to Fritz on the ATP tour's serving quality leaderboard. However, Fritz is the player in winning form and he should find a way through it.

Elsewhere there are eye-catching names to look out in this quarter including Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini who are typically on most people's longlists when it comes to Slam contenders. 

Medvedev made the semi-finals the past two years yet he has been struggling for form this past 12 months and is struggling to hang on to his top 10 ranking. Meanwhile, 2021 runner-up Berrettini struggles to stay fit for any length of time and enters his first tournament since retiring on the 12th of May in Rome.

There is a big priced joker in the pack of this quarter in the form of Alexei Popyrin, who at 1000.0999/1 on Betfair Exchange is reasonably considered as an unlikely Wimbledon winner.

However, the 20th seed is performing consistently well at Grand Slams and should find conditions here to his liking. Last year he came close to knocking out Novak Djokovic, but lacked the belief to do so. This time around he is enjoying the fruits of a successful coaching arrangement and is not without a chance of a good tournament.

Popyrin is seeded to face Medvedev in round three, who he has defeated in the past 12 months. It's a long shot for a reason but another worth some coffee money as a trading proposition.

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A betting approach for Alcaraz, the ace in the pack

Carlos Alcaraz is a justified tournament favourite, but there is no value in backing him before a ball is struck.

Let's not forget the Spaniard was down and out against Sinner in the French Open final, and priced multiple times higher in-play than the 2.285/4 he started that tournament.

Also, if we look at Alcaraz's Wimbledon history there is high potential for an in-play bet. Last season he lost the first set in three of his seven matches and was trailing by two sets to one to Frances Tiafoe.

The season before he required five sets to see off Djokovic, and earlier in the tournament lost the opener to Berretini.

It is best to back Alcaraz as the tournament progresses.

That said it is difficult to source the upset in his quarter. Holger Rune is his highest forecasted seed but he is not in great form, while the likes of Jiri Lehecka, Tallon Griekspoor, Andrey Rublev, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas have a ceiling that is unlikely to result in a Grand Slam victory.

The one value option in this quarter is the aforementioned Tiafoe, who came mightily close to eliminating Alcaraz in 2024. The American is saving his best form for the majors as evidenced by his semi-final run at last year's US Open, and an unexpected but highly impressive run to this year's French Open.

Tiafoe has a spark of genius that other player's lack, and it is clear that he can at least cause Alcaraz some issues even if it ends in a competitive defeat. At 620.0619/1 Tiafoe is much too big.

Should any of the three selections go deep in the tournament then we will be ideally placed to exit the bet for a profit. Read all about laying bets on Betfair and trading your way to a profit here.

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