Wimbledon 2025: Players to watch, players to avoid and the dark horses who can surprise

• Will we see another Sinner vs Alcaraz final?

• Taylor Fritz looks a value play at a big price

• Get the verdict on Sabalenka and more

• Gavin has two long odds picks in women's draw

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We saw one of the all-time great matches last month in Paris when Carlos Alcaraz sunk Jannik Sinner in five epic sets to win the French Open.

And the Betfair odds say we will get a repeat with the top two in men's tennis set to contest the final of Wimbledon.

The women's draw is far less clear. In 2023 Czechia's Marketa Vondrousova won the title at 140/1141.00 while 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova was 66/167.00 before a ball was struck. Aryna Sabalenka is rightfully installed as favourite, but her usual market rivals of Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina do not represent value for one reason or another.

Here I will give you a run-down of why you should keep an eye on the players I've already listed - and more - as you size up your Wimbledon outright picks ahead of Friday's draw.

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Wimbledon men's tournament analysis

Alcaraz and Sinner clear of the rest

There is a clear divide between Sinner and Alcaraz and their peers. Since the start of the 2024 season this pair of generational rivals has split each of the major honours, with Alcaraz recently defending his French Open title.

The Spaniard is also the reigning Wimbledon champion, and having won at Queens Club last week he is a justified, if mightily short, 7/52.40 favourite on the Betfair Sportsbook to repeat last year's feat. Considering Sinner hit the Betfair Exchange's shortest odds of 1.011/100 to win the French Open final, punters considering backing Alcaraz in the outright may well find better opportunities to back the Spaniard as the tournament progresses.

But Alcaraz is the player to beat on natural surfaces, and with two Wimbledon titles already on his resumé he might already be considered one of the greatest grass courters of all-time.

You can't speak about Alcaraz without mentioning his rival Jannik Sinner in the same breath. The Italian will have struggled to sleep after a French Open final in which he led by two sets to love and had several opportunities to close the deal. The final was an all-time classic, and although in these columns I am hunting for value in the outright betting, I would not mind spending my Sunday watching another epic between the top two.

As was the case before the French Open, you can't point to a huge back catalogue of evidence that shows Sinner is a standout grass court player - he holds only one grass court title to his name - but his standards are so high that I expect he will be there or therabouts. At odds of 17/102.70 however he has little betting appeal.

Djokovic and Draper the likely men's contenders

Novak Djokovic is likely playing his last Wimbledon. The 25-time major winner appeared to kiss goodbye to the Roland Garros crowd after his semi-final loss to Sinner suggesting we are on the go-home tour.

However, of all the Slams it is Wimbledon where the 38-year old has the best chance of competing. Despite his advancing years, there is no better mover on this surface and last year he was still able to reach the final playing on one leg.

It's a tough ask for him to overcome either Sinner or Alcaraz, but he is the best of the rest at 6/17.00.

Britain's Jack Draper has been installed as a hugely optimistic 9/110.00 fourth favourite. The Londoner won a grass court title last season, and defeated Alcaraz at Queen's Club, yet when looking at his performance data on this surface he is only considered the seventh best grass court player.

Draper is making huge strides and has earned his world number four ranking, but I can't see him piecing it together to win Wimbledon. At least not this year.

Bublik is confident

There is a surprising name next in the betting market as Alexander Bublik is installed at 25/126.00. The Kazakhstani is an enigmatic player, who is in career best form having followed up an unexpected quarter-final French Open finish with a title in Halle where he beat both Sinner and Daniil Medvedev.

Last year I suggested Bublik as a 240/1241.00 pick to win Wimbledon, and this time round his odds are only a 10th of that price. He is a known commodity this year.

He shares the 25/126.00 price with Alexander Zverev, who followed up a final in Stuttgart with a semi-final in Halle this grass campaign. Zverev has never convinced on this surface, with a deficient forecourt game and an overreliance on grinding behind the baseline likely to prove his undoing at some point.

Best of the rest in the men's draw

Taylor Fritz looks a spot of value at 55.054/1 on the Betfair Exchange. The American endured an injury-impacted shocker of a clay swing, but started the grass court season in fine form by winning in Stuttgart.

I remain unconvinced that Fritz can go all the way and win a Slam, but he made the US Open final last season and ended the season ranked four in the world. He is a top end player, and his odds simply look too big heading into a tournament where he has twice made the quarter-final.

Beyond Fritz there is not a great deal of interest in the 35/136.00 and up range, although if Lorenzo Musetti is fit he could give us a good run at 100/1101.00. 

The problem is he injured himself against Alcaraz in the French Open semi-final and has reportedly only been able to endure light training since then. ELO ratings view the Italian as the fourth best grass court player currently.

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Long odds names to keep an eye on

With huge odds available on the Betfair Exchange I am always keen to through small money on some big-priced outsiders. Frances Tiafoe looks far too big at 530.0529/1 on the Betfair Exchange. The American suffered a poor defeat to Dan Evans at Queens Club last week, but he has been saving his best form for the Grand Slams with a strong run on his weakest surface in Paris complementing his 2024 US Open semi-final showing.

Tiafoe is capable of playing on this surface, and had Alcaraz on the ropes at Wimbledon last year leading by two sets to one before the Spaniard lifted his level when it was most required. Nobody will want to see Tiafoe in their draw, and he is worth a dabble at his absurd price.

Another name that leaps off the pag at a big price is Alexei Popyrin at 670.0669/1. The Australian is similarly playing his best stuff at the majors, and has spoken about how his new coaching set-up has elevated his game. Last season Popyrin had chances to defeat Djokovic here, and with his serve and a good draw could go far.

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Wimbledon women's tournament analysis

Sabalenka struggling to close

 

Aryna Sabalenka is the best player in the world and has been installed as the 11/43.75 Betfair Sportsbook favourite to win Wimbledon. However, the Belarusian has not been able to convert her talent into consistent major victories with her French Open final capitulation her second consecutive Grand Slam final defeat of 2025.

On both occasions the pressure got to Sabalenka, and she couldn't perform at her usual best with the title on the line. Sabalenka is a fair favourite, but there is an evident vulnerability when she gets near the finishing line. She has the complete toolkit and should win this tournament. The odds may tempt some into an investment, particularly when considering the chances of most of her rivals.

Gauff and Swiatek are unconvincing contenders at the top of betting 

It is hard to make a case for Sabalenka's usual rivals. Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek really struggle on the grass, as their shots are not built to excel on this surface. Gauff has never made it beyond round four, while Swiatek has only one quarter-final on her record despite dominating the tour for several years.

Likewise I can't make a strong case for the sport's wonderkid Mirra Andreeva. The 18-year old Russian is a serious talent but her grass court performances to date have not impressed. Andreeva looked like she'd rather be anywhere but the grass courts of Berlin last week.

Elena Rybakina is also a player I am struggling to imagine as a winner this time round. The Kazakhstani is a former Wimbledon champion and is listed as the 11/26.50 second favourite. Yet, there is a spark missing from Rybakina's game currently and last week she made a mess of defeating Sabalenka, failing to convert four match points although I feel Sabalenka was in a casual mode where she wasn't all too bothered about winning or losing.

Grand Slam champs can compete

Madison Keys, 21.020/1 to back on the Betfair Exchange, is definitely worthy of consideration this time round. The American has matured this year, finally grabbing a first major title in Australia and has done a good job of backing up that early season form.

Keys has been consistently competitive this season, and you can point to plenty of examples from her career that shows she enjoys playing on grass. With her current confidence and form she is too large a price relative to the aforementioned names that should not be viewed as more likely winners.

A former Wimbledon champion who has been backed in significantly over the past week is Marketa Vondrousova. Last weekend the Czech was around 60.059/1 to win this edition, but an impressive win in Berlin has seen her price plummet to 17.016/1.

There is no doubt about the Czech's form but the value has gone. Bare in mind Vondrousova has been struggling with chronic shoulder issues and has had a stop-start two years. 

Two outsiders to back at triple figure odds 

As I indicated at the start of this piece long odds players have gone well at Wimbledon in recent times. 

Qinwen Zheng might not fall into that category at 30.029/1 but she has shown in recent weeks that she is getting to grips with the surface. With her serve and groundstroke power it is not unreasonable for her to compete.

At a much bigger price Diana Shnaider 110.0109/1 is a joker in the pack. The lefty has easy power and has shown that she is very dangerous on this surface, winning the biggest title of her career at Bad Homburg last season. She also pushed the in-form Vondrousova close during a high quality encounter in Berlin.

Croatia's Donna Vekic is also lingering at an unreasonably high price. Vekic was a semi-finalist here last year, and although she blows hot and cold she has a game tailor made for grass. At 140.0139/1 to back on the Betfair Exchange and in a seemingly upward form trajectory Vekic is worthy of consideration.

The final player I am marking out is Linda Noskova 140.0139/1. The Czech is a talented power hitter and is overdue a long run at a Grand Slam. Her compatriots have been cleaning up this tournament in recent years, and her game fits this surface too.

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