Wimbledon

Wimbledon Sunday Tips: Back Sabalenka at over Evens on Day 7

Wimbledon trophies
Aryna Sabalenka took a huge step closer to winning her first Wimbledon when defeating Raducanu on Friday

Tennis tipster Gavin Mair makes four suggestions for Sunday's round four Wimbledon action...

  • Back Norrie or Sabalenka Bet Builders and get free bet

  • Majchrzak underrated in Khachanov match

  • Keep an eye on Anisimova


Aryna Sabalenka showed why she is the favourite to win Wimbledon on Friday night when she narrowly defeated the competitive Emma Raducanu.

The world number one should be confident of backing up that result, and I suggest how you can back her at over Evens to defeat former doubles partner Elise Mertens by taking advantage of Betfair's free bet Bet Builder promotion.

Elsewhere I see value in siding with Cam Norrie to down Nicolas Jarry, and suggest trading angles involving Kamil Majchrzak and Amanda Anisimova.


How to back Sabalenka at over Evens

Aryna Sabalenka's won a high quality encounter over Emma Raducanu, and her reward is her former doubles partner and good friend Elise Mertens.

There are no secrets between these two players, and that only favours one person - the world number one. Mertens last defeated Sabalenka in 2018, before the Belarusian's prime, and in that time Sabalenka has won nine matches in a row. 

Mertens has only been able to bag a set in two of those matches, in what has become a one sided match-up. The Belgian may be playing well but it is difficult to imagine her overturning Sabalenka anytime soon.

Sabalenka was forced by Raducanu to produce a strong performance, and she answered lingering doubts about her ability on the grass. Whether she wins Wimbledon remains to be seen, but she does look a reasonable title favourite based on Friday night's showing.

Mertens overcame Elina Svitolina, itself an impressive result, but unlike versus the Ukrainian she will not be the bigger hitter on this occasion. Sabalenka showed a sharpness that suggests if she performs to her current standards Mertens will be handled comfortably.

I see value in backing Sabalenka to win this match, and do so winning under 12.5 games - which is 11/102.11 using the Betfair Bet Builder - and has landed in six of Sabalenka's defeats of Mertens.


Norrie returns are key

The last British player remaining in the draw Cameron Norrie will next face Nicolas Jarry, who is enjoying a surprise run from qualifying.

Jarry has proven a hard nut to crack on serve, landing a phenomenal 65 Aces across his main draw matches and the key to his success will be in how well he can reproduce that form in this encounter.

This will be the first match that Jarry plays on one of the major stadium courts, and although the schedule has not been released at the time of writing, I'm sure Norrie will be lobbying to play this match on Court One where he has described conditions as perfect for his game and where he has won his past two matches.

There is a difference in playing conditions from court to court, and Norrie is more familiar than Jarry of how to apply his game in that stadium court environment. It is perceived that is easier for the big servers to perform better on the more enclosed outside courts where there is less room for returning players to play with.

Norrie will also carry crowd support as the remaining Brit in the men's draw. It is often forgotten that Norrie is a former Wimbledon semi-finalist, and that on his day he is a capable player on the grass. Although the match-up dynamics of his victories against Frances Tiafoe and Mattia Bellucci differ drastically from what Jarry offers, Norrie is playing to a high standard.

It is unlikely to be an easy won victory, with Jarry serving to such a high standard and there is potential for long sets and a long match overall.

There are more reasons to side with Norrie in the match-up than Jarry and I recommend using a Betfair Bet Builder to pair a Norrie victory and Norrie to win over 20.5 games at a little over 6/42.50. 


Majchrzak underrated for Khachanov clash

Kamil Majchrzak is enjoying a career best run at a Grand Slam, and is not without a chance of continuing his winning ways against Karen Khachanov, who most would consider far from the worst draw at this stage of a Grand Slam.

The Polish player Majchrzak has shown some a very impressive level so far in this tournament upsetting Matteo Berrettini in round one, before dominating Ethan Quinn and Arthur Rinderknech in his next two matches.

The wins have been secured with attacking power and flair, and the quality of his return of serve has caught the eye.

Khachanov on the other hand rarely does his job in a stylish ways. Indeed his past two wins over Nuno Borges and Shintaro Mochizuki have been secured in five sets and in the grinding fashion for which the Russian is renowned.

Against Mochizuki, Khachanov won seven points fewer overall than his opponent while he required a final set tiebreak to defeat Borges. There is a physical and mental drain on winning matches by such fine margins, and such an approach is unsustainable. 

Despite that odds compilers have strong confidence in Khachanov imagining him a confident 4/111.36 favourite before a ball has been played.

I struggle to see good reason in such a price on Khachanov, whose might be winning but he is not winning well, and I still remember him folding to an unfancied player at Wimbledon last year in the form of Quentin Halys.

It is worth backing Majchrzak to win this match on the Betfair Exchange as I would be surprised if there is not a good trading opportunity out of either laying Khachanov or backing Majchrzak at 3.39/4


Anisimova to clear Noskova

Another match where there might be opportunity to get involved on the Betfair Exchange is that between the similarly styled Linda Noskova and Amanda Anisimova.

I earmarked both players as having the potential to run deep at Wimbledon this year, and both have lived up to expectations.

They will seek to play on the front foot, and try to outhit the other in what should be a fascinating heavy hitting encounter. 

You could make a case for either player, but the exchange market has settled correctly on siding with Anisimova as its pre-match favourite. 

Noskova has the game but she is more volatile as shown in her performances at this tournament and while I see her potential ability as a potential Wimbledon winner in future editions of this great sporting event, I feel she still needs to mature her game.

Anisimova is clearly more experienced in that regard, and is showing this season that this is the best version we have seen of her in her career. Anisimova bagged the biggest title of her career in Qatar, and has had a fruitful grass court campaign reaching the final at Queens Club.

I trust Anisimova more in this situation than Noskova and although I don't see clear value in the pre-match price, I am listing this match as one to keep an eye on. Noskova has been a shaky frontrunner of late, blowing a huge lead against Jess Pegula in a recent match in Berlin, and also made heavy work of seeing off Kamila Rakhimova in the last round despite being an obvious level above the Russian.

There is potential for movement on Anisimova's price in-play, but I expect her to come through this match.


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Gavin Mair avatar

Gavin Mair

Gavin Mair is a betting expert on men's and women's tennis.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.