Wimbledon Tuesday Tips: A good day to back the favourites

• Siegemund disrespectful line v Sabalenka

• Fritz conceding sets, can be backed at odds-against

• Keep it simple on Tuesday - back all favourites at over evens

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Throughout this tournament Betfair has been running a tennis Bet Builder promotion, where you earn a free £5 if you place a Bet Builder selection. I have one up my sleeve today in the match involving Laura Siegemund and Aryna Sabalenka.

Elsewhere, I expect Taylor Fritz to get clear of Karen Khachanov although it is unlikely to be a rout with the American's statistical margins adding up to a win over the course of four or five sets.

Tuesday looks like a good day for favourites backers, and I suggest how you can get a 21/202.05 pick on backing all the likely winners.

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Siegemund can cover low games total

 

Yes, like everyone else I would be flabbergasted if Aryna Sabalenka were not to defeat Laura Siegemund.

However, odds compilers not only expect Sabalenka to clear Siegemund, they expect that the German will struggle to win a game too. That is disrespectful of the form of Siegemund who has been given a +6.5 game handicap to see her way past Sabalenka.

To cover that handicap Siegemund must accumulate a total of six games across her two defeated sets, and she has been playing well enough throughout this tournament to take care of business often enough to tally up some games on the board.

Siegemund has downed Madison Keys, Leylah Fernandez, Solana Sierra and Peyton Stearns in dominant fashion to arrive in the quarter-final - only her second at any Grand Slam for the 37-year old.

She is a canny operator, who will get Sabalenka moving when she gets the chance. It is clear that Sabalenka is winning matches, but is not crushing opposition. Only once this tournament has Sabalenka cleared such a handicap and that was in the opening round against a qualifier who was a deer in the headlights during an opening set in which she clocked just the one game.

Sabalenka was only narrowly better than Marie Bouzkova, Emma Raducanu and Elise Mertens - all of whom would not only have covered a +6.5 game handicap, but a +3.5 game handicap.

I think the bar is too low on Siegemund to win three games in each set, and the odds are healthy enough to have some interest.

Using the Betfair Bet Builder back a Sabalenka 2-0 set victory (she is yet to concede a set this tournament) with Siegemund covering a +6.5 game handicap which pays out at 2/13.00.

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Fritz leaking sets

 

My headline outright pick in the men's draw is still going strong.

I recommended Taylor Fritz as a bet on the Betfair Exchange at 60.059/1 and the American is now a game away from the semi-finals. Understandably, the presence of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in the tournament is keeping everyone's odds high but a place in the semi-finals will see Fritz's price contract further from his current 27.026/1.

Fritz plays an opponent with a similar style. Karen Khachanov also seeks to combine serving stability with stubborn baseline consistency. The trouble for the Russian is that Fritz has a clear statistical edge in combined hold and break percentages.

Ahead of the tournament Fritz was the tour's leader in terms of serving quality, with Khachanov ranked just inside the top 30. Over a five set contest there is a clear edge for Fritz statistically.

We also have to recognise that Fritz has ably guided his way through the draw from hell - with Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Gabriel Diallo and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina all proving tough opposition through the early rounds. Two of those matches were settled in five sets, while the other was won in four.

Luckily, Fritz was given a chance to rest by Jordan Thompson's inability to complete their round four encounter.

Khachanov has also had to grind his way to the last eight, albeit against less stellar competition than Fritz. Khachanov needed five sets to see off Nuno Borges and Shintaro Mochizuki, although he did comfortably dispatch of Mackenzie McDonald and Kamil Majchrzak.

Fritz has been leaking sets across this tournament, but mainly due to the quality of opposition. Khachanov is renowned for being competitive against top players, taking sets off both top 10 players he has faced this season in losing efforts.

I see value in backing Fritz to win and both players to win a set at 5/42.25

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Alcaraz should hurdle Norrie

 

Carlos Alcaraz looked in fine form on Sunday when defeating Andrey Rublev, who was able to take an early set lead before the Spaniard went through the gears.

It was the best match the defending champion has played this tournament, and his challengers will not be heartened to see that he's warming up in time for the business end to start.

Opponent Cameron Norrie has enjoyed a great Wimbledon but it is difficult to imagine how he troubles Alcaraz here.

Odds of 1/251.04 understandably don't appeal, but neither does Norrie to cover any of the set lines at marginally over evens. 

In that scenario, you are betting for the Brit's game to bother Alcaraz, which feels like a stretch, and for Alcaraz to randomly underperform in one set which is not impossible but is not something you can measure in any scientific way.

This should be easy for Alcaraz, but there is very little juice in his lines.

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First Slam semi beckons for Anisimova

 

We are currently sitting with a nice looking ticket on Amanda Anisimova to win Wimbledon. She was my headline pick in the women's draw to win at 40.039/1 and is now a win away from reaching the final four. Anisimova is now into 14.013/1, and takes a leading head-to-head record into her forecasted semi-final with Aryna Sabalenka.

Anisimova is well favoured to defeat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at 2/51.40 but there is potential for the American to blow off course for a while. Trying to measure how she will handle the nerves of reaching a first major semi-final is unpredictable. 

Still, should she play to form I expect her to win this comfortably. Pavlyuchenkova did not look in great form when navigating her way past Sonay Kartal on Sunday.

I expect all four betting favourites win today, and if you were looking for a little interest on today's card you can combine each of Sabalenka, Anisimova, Fritz and Alcaraz to win for 21/202.05 on the Sportsbook.

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