Wimbledon Wednesday Tips: Djokovic and Swiatek value to win comfortably in quarter-finals

• Djokovic should beat Cobolli comfortably

• Fitness doubt over lucky Sinner

• Andreeva v Bencic will reveal much about Russian

• Swiatek on course for her best ever Wimbledon

---

Novak Djokovic survived a valiant effort from Alex De Minaur to make his way through to the 16th Wimbledon quarter-final of the Serbian's career.

The legend has not lost at that stage since retiring to Tomas Berdych in 2017 and probably only injury will prevent him from bypassing Flavio Cobolli this year.

Jannik Sinner lives to fight another day but if it wasn't for an unfortunate injury to Grigor Dimitrov the world number one would have been sent packing. The Italian injured his elbow during that match, and it remains to be seen what condition he will be in to face Ben Shelton. If he is fit, Sinner should have too much for Shelton.

Iga Swiatek is enjoying the best Wimbledon run of her career, and looks good value to reach the final four for the first time. 

I'm uncertain of Mirra Andreeva's level and expect we will learn a whole lot more about her grass court prowess in her quarter-final against Belinda Bencic.

---

Djokovic should slide safely through

Flavio Cobolli has enjoyed a breakthrough Wimbledon campaign. In reaching his first Grand Slam quarter-final, a result that moved his coach and father Stefano to tears, the Italian showed he has joined the big leagues.

However, waiting for Cobolli is his idol Djokovic who crushed Cobolli for only three games when they met last October in Shanghai. Cobolli couldn't get near Djokovic's serve and was made to work hard for every point on that occasion.

Djokovic spoke with surprise about his opponent's unexpected run at Wimbledon, highlighting that this does not seem like Cobolli's best surface. One thing for certain is that grass is currently the best surface for Djokovic.

I struggle to see how this match will become competitive. Djokovic had a slow start against Alex De Minaur, who was attacking the Serbian's serve in a way that is rarely seen. Yet Djokovic adapted and was still able to clear the 19.5 game handicap.

While you can point to De Minaur's returning strength as evidence of a potential weapon - the Australian is the best returner on tour statistically - there is no department in which you can credibly make a case for Cobolli holding superiority over the best player of all time.

This should be a comfortable day's work for Djokovic. Use Betfair's Bet Builder to combine Djokovic winning under 19.5 games and a 3-0 set victory at 10/111.91.

---

Jury out on Sinner

 

Jannik Sinner is a lucky, lucky man. The Italian was on course to be eliminated from the tournament at two sets down to Grigor Dimitrov, who had been carving him up. Unfortunately, Dimitrov injured his pectoral muscle in set three and was forced to retire with victory in sight.

It also appeared that world number one Sinner was impacted by an elbow injury. The Italian is due to go for a MRI on Tuesday, ahead of his quarter-final contest with Ben Shelton. Despite this, Sinner is listed as a 1/51.20 favourite to get the win.

If Sinner is fit, it is difficult to believe that Shelton will be able to get the win here, having lost all five of his last matches against the Italian and winning no sets in the process.

I also have doubts about Shelton's suitability for this surface. He serves huge, but he does not impress as a returner and if he tries to draw out rallies as he did in his match against Lorenzo Sonego on big points that is unlikely to go his way against the tour's premier baseline player.

What Sinner struggled with against Dimitrov was the craft and variety that took the Italian out of his comfort zone. Shelton might mix up his game, but it's a different playbook than the variety of low shots and slices that Sinner struggled to handle against Dimitrov.

Should Sinner pass his fitness test then I expect he should collect a comfortable win from this match-up, possibly even landing a 3-0 set victory at 13/102.30 but given his condition it is difficult to draw up clear expectations for Sinner.

---

What to make of Andreeva?

 

Mirra Andreeva is still learning to play on grass, yet her supreme talent has allowed her to navigate successfully to the quarter-finals.

The Russian's performances have at times been good, as her variety has helped her smother opponents, such as Emma Navarro yesterday. However, there have also been signs of passivity and reactive play from Andreeva too.

Andreeva has yet to drop a set at this year's Wimbledon and is fancied to successfully see off Belinda Bencic on Wednesday.

Bencic is enjoying a good run, is hitting the ball well and has come out on top of mental battles that have emerged in recent wins over Ekaterina Alexandrova and Elisabetta Cocciaretto.

While those two matches were gun fights,  which came down to who could best execute their weapons under pressure, there will be more nuance to this match-up with Andreeva.

In her first match at Wimbledon, I was surprised at how negative and reactive Andreeva was in defeating Mayar Sherif, who was hyper aggressive but lacked the skills to do so effectively. Andreeva let Sherif hit her shots and there is a worry that she'll allow Bencic to dictate.

We will learn a lot about Mirra Andreeva in this match. Will it be a tactical and technical masterclass from the Russian, or will she be hit off the court by allowing Bencic to decide the points?

With that in mind I find it very difficult to back Andreeva at such optimistically low prices. I am clearer on what to expect from Bencic, and feel she might provide some trading value at 3.185/40 on the Betfair Exchange. 

There might be plenty of twists and turns even if Bencic does have a competitive chance in this match, as no player gets more enthused by a scoreline deficit than the tenacious Swiss.

---

Swiatek should be comfortable

 

Swiatek is enjoying her best Wimbledon. Previously grass had tied her in knots, but this year the Polish star has tempered her aggressive game with patience and discipline.

Her run to the final in Bad Homburg was a promising sign, as the ultra quick and low bouncing conditions have previously frustrated the Polish star. She lost the championship match to Jessica Pegula there, but has shown a positive reaction.

Conditions at Wimbledon are more to her liking, and in this second week the courts are reminiscent in certain ways of clay courts. The queen of clay may never enjoy grass as much as she does clay, but she has a reasonable shot at adding an elusive Wimbledon title to her collection if she can keep on track.

Swiatek produced an impressive performance against the tricky Clara Tauson and I expect her to follow up with a similar display against Liudmila Samsonova.

The Russian didn't appear in great condition come the end of her match against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, and required treatment for severe looking blisters at the end of set one. Samsonova's victory was also harder won than expected, and showed that the ever slowing courts are playing less to her favour the longer this tournament goes on.

What's more, Swiatek handily dispatched Samsonova in all but their first career meeting. The last three have been won by the Polish player by seven, eight and 11 game margins.

It is more difficult to rack up such one sided scorelines on the grass, as players can typically survive more service games than they would on hard or clay courts. But I still expect Swiatek to get through this comfortably.

Swiatek to win a 2-0 set victory is a reasonable 10/111.91.

---

Bookmark our Wimbledon tipping page and come back for daily tips throughout the tournament 

---