Wimbledon

Wimbledon Wednesday Tips: Raducanu to exit at the hands of Vondrousova on Day 3

Wimbledon grounds
Marketa Vondrousova will be eyeing a second Wimbledon title this year

It might only be day three of Wimbledon but there is already a match between Grand Slam champions to enjoy but it's bad news for Brit favourite Emma Radacanu. Tennis tipster Gavin Mair gives his insight in Wednesday's tipsheet featuring four bets 

  • Vondrousova has clear edge on Raducanu

  • Rublev and Auger-Aliassime don't win easily, here's how to take advantage! 

  • Underdog Brit Billy Harris can advance


On day three of Wimbledon I expect mixed fortunes for the British players in action. That is bad news for Emma Raducanu who has the toughest assignment in the sport currently when she face Marketa Vondrousova.

Billy Harris on the other hand, has a huge opportunity to reach the third round of a Grand Slam for the first time when he takes on Nuno Borges.

Elsewhere, I suggest a couple of Betfair Bet Builders to capitalise on the inefficient games of Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime. As long as you qualify for the offer, placing a Bet Builder of £5 or more means you will receive a free £5 bet.

Back 13/10 Vondrousova to down Raducanu

Emma Raducanu burst onto the scene in 2021 with a straight sets win at Wimbledon against Marketa Vondrousova. A few months later the Brit scored the most incredible Grand Slam victory in history when she won the US Open.

That initial phase of Raducanu's career has failed to rematerialise. It was the ultimate riding of a wave, and unshakeable youthful self-belief that carried her to these first great results. 

Since then, the tour has fathomed Raducanu's game and she is far from a dominant force on the tour - yet is ranked a respectable 32 in the world for her season to date.

A lot has happened in the career of Vondrousova since that 2021 match. The Czech would learn to master grass courts, eventually becoming Wimbledon champion in 2023 and has defeated Raducanu handily in both matches since they played.

One was a humiliating 1&1 pasting on the clay courts of Prague, but it is the straight sets win recorded this year on the hard courts of Abu Dhabi that holds most relevancy. On clay you'd expect a Vondrousova triumph, but although the Czech would be a marginal favourite on hard courts you'd expect Raducanu to have a reasonable chance of victory particularly at a time of the year when Vondrousova was clearly bothered by injury.

There are no signs of injury for Vondrousova currently who is the undisputed form player on tour right now. She won in Berlin defeating Aryna Sabalenka along the way, and was hugely impressive for the most part against Nottingham champion McCartney Kessler in round one.

Courts look ideal for Vondrousova - especially the show courts that appear more difficult to penetrate - and not only do I expect her to comfortably dispatch Raducanu but I think Sabalenka will be in a spot of bother in round three.

Vondrousova looks too big to win this match in her current form, with Raducanu's pricing routinely boosted by hype and name recognition.

The best value way to get on board with a Vondrousova victory is to back her at 13/102.30 to win in straight sets.


Rinse and repeat Rublev

 

We had a winner on day one backing Andrey Rublev to win his match against Laslo Djere in complicated fashion.

It was one of Rublev's better performances in what has been a season of struggle for the Muscovite, yet although he held the edge consistently against his opponent he still contrived to play four sets squandering multiple set-points in the set he did lose.

Opponent Lloyd Harris will feel positive of his chances of hanging with Rublev. The big South African was previously ranked 31 in the world before injuries caused havoc with his career.

He entered Wimbledon on a protected ranking and made good use of his opportunity to defeat recent Rosmalen finalist Zizou Bergs in four sets. Harris hit 23 Aces throughout this match, and if he brings that serving standard to his meeting with Rublev will give himself a chance of nabbing a set.

Three of the four sets Harris played against Bergs were settled in tiebreaks, as was the case for Rublev's win over Djere. The potential for close sets is high.

These two also faced off last month at the French Open with Rublev claiming the win that he should do on most days of the week when this duo meets on clay. However, Harris was still able to claim a set that day. It is as if Rublev can't help himself.

Use the Betfair Bet Builder to pair together a Rublev win and Rublev to play over 20.5 games - which would even cover in the event that he efficiently wins three tiebreak sets at 11/102.11


Opportunity knocks for Billy the Brit

 

Billy Harris - no relation to the aforementioned Lloyd - has a big opportunity to back up a first Grand Slam main draw win with a second, when he takes on the grass-loathing Nuno Borges on Wednesday.

Borges said after his opening round win over the similarly surface averse and bang out of form Francisco Cerundolo: "Today I felt that I managed to overcome the fear of playing on grass and possibly getting injured again." (Thanks to the excellent tennis information service Tennisform for the quote).

His words hardly inspire confidence. What's more this is by far the least comfortable surface for Borges who typically thrives in conditions where he can size up his forehand, but on grass it has been proven that is a little too slick for him to do that.

Harris has an uncomplicated game and it works well on this surface as is shown by his ability to reach the Eastbourne quarter-finals in consecutive years. Not at all bad for a player who hangs about on the fringes of the top 100 ranked players of the world.

The Brit can be trusted to keep his serve ticking over and pick the efficient and correct option in the rallies. Harris showed his comfort in the conditions defeating the higher ranked Dusan Lajovic handily in the opening round 6/3 6/2 6/4.

It stands to reason that the higher ranked Borges is the market favourite for this match. However, there is value to be had in siding with Billy Harris who has a greater chance than the 2.526/4 Betfair Exchange price indicates.


Struff can hang with inefficient Felix

 

Former world number six Felix Auger-Aliassime has one of the most perplexing Grand Slam records around.

The Canadian has a poor record for a player of his talent, notable for the large number of protracted four and five set matches he plays in the early rounds of majors.

His first round win over James Duckworth is a case in point. Yes, Duckworth is tricky and can handle himself fairly well on grass but that it took five sets and the overturning of a two set to one deficit for Felix to eek out the win speaks a lot to his psychology at majors. If that were a match on the regular tour, you'd fancy he'd secure a far less complicated victory.

The danger signs are there for Felix to repeat his long route to win when he plays the reliably competitive Jan-Lennard Struff in round two. The 35-year old German is considered a handy grass court player thanks to his imposing serve and versatile game.

Struff played well in round one, broken only once whilst creating 12 break points in quick conditions as he defeated Filip Misolic. The ingredients are there for this to be competitive.

Felix has the tools to down Struff and is expected to win this match. However, Struff should be competitive having won two of their five previous meetings and exposing Auger-Aliassime's penchant for long matches by taking a set off the Canadian at the Australian Open at the start of the season. It was a great example of Auger-Aliassime's inefficiency as he dominated the three sets he won, yet still contrived to drop one along the way.

Using the Betfair Bet Builder to combine a Auger-Aliassime victory and for him to win over 20.5 games is the way to go, and is value at over 6/52.20.


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Gavin Mair

Gavin Mair is a betting expert on men's and women's tennis.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.