UK General Election Constituency Betting: Ten Tory targets that would signal a comfortable majority

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Boris Johnson needs to gain nine seats for an overall majority so any of these - ranked 41-50 in numerical terms among their Labour-held targets - would signal a big win...

"There are at least ten tougher gains higher up these rankings than Workington so it may prove a good marker as to whether the Tories gain a majority or not."

Bristol North West

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This constituency should act as a warning to those predicting huge Tory majorities. It is Labour's 41st most vulnerable to a Tory takeover but they should have high hopes of retaining it even on a terrible night. 26% of the population are under 35 and the referendum split was 61/39 to Remain. Darren Jones won on a 9% swing in 2017 by squeezing Lib Dem and Green shares. Repeating that trick will be the key.

Enfield Southgate

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Labour had only ever won this outer-London marginal in the peak-Blair elections of 1997 and 2001 until Bambos Charalambous managed a 9% swing last time on his third attempt to unseat David Burrowes. Thethrice-elected Tory returns for a fourth showdown and that could provide a critical boost to help defy the Brexit dynamic. This was a 62% Remain seat in 2016.

Gedling

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Based on the fundamentals, Gedling would probably have gone Tory in one of the last three elections. Labour have been able to buck regional and demographic trends for one particular reason - Vernon Coaker. The six-term MP (he won at the third attempt in 1997) is famous for his relentless local campaigning and profile. That may well prove enough to defy bad national trends for Labour in Leave seats - 56% in this case.

Bury North

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Historically this has been something of a bellweather, with roughly median demographics. Bury North voted to Leave (54%), which makes Labour regaining it on a 5% swing all the more impressive. It is certainly within range for the Tories, starting from 45% and given Labour's troubles in Northern towns. However that swing has appeared less pronounced in areas connected to Manchester - Bury is on the tram system.

Bassetlaw

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This 68/32 Leave constituency deserves to be much further up the rankings and looks a banker Tory gain in the current climate. Were it not for popular incumbent John Mann, it might have gone after Labour's last national victory in 2005. An outspoken critic of Jeremy Corbyn, Mann is standing down this time. Labour's core in this marginal is ex-mining, much of which would likelier support the Brexit Party rather than the Tories.

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Workington

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'Workington Man' has entered the lexicon as the archetypal voter being targeted by the Tories. It is easy to see why. This constituency is 99% white, 38% over 55 and 61% voted to Leave. There are at least ten tougher gains higher up these rankings so it may prove a good marker as to whether the Tories gain a majority or not. They have only won it once, temporarily, in a seventies by-election.

Croydon Central

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Outer London will be key to the size of any Tory majority. Their vote here is historically solid - 39% backed them in the disaster years of 1997 and 2001, before they took it despite national defeat in 2005. However it had started trending away from them by 2015 and they start 5,500 behind this time. Any advance from the Lib Dems from 1.9% could prove pivotal.

Dagenham and Rainham

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This one on the East London/Essex border is particularly hard to call. This is deep Brexit country - 70% voted to Leave, 30% voted for UKIP in 2015 and 7% did so again last time. Elsewhere that would imply bad long-term trends for Labour but Jon Cruddas starts with a 2,000 higher majority than in 2010. That probably owes something to the MP but he must hope wider issues come into play beyond Brexit.

Birmingham Northfield

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Similar dynamics to the previous constituency. More white working class and Leave (62%) than the rest of the city, where a long-term MP surprisingly increased his majority in 2017. Richard Burden is bidding for an eighth term but the early money in this seat has been for the Tories. Win this and a majority is secure.

Delyn

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Again, the Labour MP is chasing an eighth term - David Hanson gained it from the Tories at the second attempt in 1992. The new fundamentals read well for the Tories - 99% white, 73% homeowners, 37% over 55, Leave (54%). However the latest Welsh polling suggests Labour are on the comeback trail, in what could be at least a mini-repeat of 2017. Hard to call.

For more tips and insight on the Election, check out the Politics...Only Bettor podcast, where Paul joins Betfair trader Joe Lee and The Sun on Sunday's political correspondent Ryan Sabey to discuss all the latest from the campaign trail and the Betfair markets

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Back Conservatives to win Scunthorpe @ 8/11

Paul Krishnamurty,

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