New Zealand v India Fifth ODI Betting: Depleted India worth taking on

Ed Hawkins
02 February 2019

Williamson wins at Westpac

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Ed Hawkins previews the dead rubber from Wellington early on Sunday and says a case can be made for the hosts...

"We have an aversion to betting favourites, though, and almost always our first reaction is to find a case for the outsider. With the Kiwis it is simple"

New Zealand v India
Sunday 3 February, 02:00
Live on Sky Sports

Kiwis get it right

The Kiwis are on the board albeit three games too late. They made use of a toss bias, although it is hard to dispute that Trent Boult performing out of his skin was the real reason for their eight-wicket thrashing.

Boult claimed five wickets as India were razed for 92. A word, too, for Colin de Grandhomme who mopped up three himself. There was seam and swing and India never looked like getting back into the game once Boult had ripped out the front three.

The hosts had made some bold changes. Colin Munro had been dropped and Henry Nicholls promoted to open while Boult shared new-ball duties with Matt Henry. With Todd Astle extending their batting to No 9 there was no room for Lockie Ferguson or Tim Southee.

Considering runscoring had been a major issue the switches made sense and it would be strange if New Zealand didn't continue with the same XI and batting order for this one.

India chopping and changing

If you had wagered India pre-toss (ignoring the big win percentage in faour of the chaser) at Hamilton, you would have been irked to see them taking things lightly. With Virat Kohli already rested, they decided to make more changes.

There was still no MS Dhoni while Mohammad Shami's spot went to Khaleel Ahmed. Shubman Gill took Kohli's place and, not surprisingly, found them big shoes to fill.

The spin threat of Kuldeep Yadav and Yuz Chahal remained but New Zealand must have taken confidence from the selection. Apart from Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan they would have been unduly worried by the batting line-up. And the excellent Bhuv Kumar apart, the pace attack was ordinary.

It could be that Dhoni plays here. Shami, it appears, won't. Indeed, there could be more changes. Rishabh Pant and Vijay Shankar, the all-rounder, are both waiting for a game.

Slight bias for defender

At the Westpac 15 of 26 day-night matches have been won by the side batting first. In the last five years, it's five wins from eight. The last five first-innings scores in day-night matches (1-2 denote match won by the team batting first or second, read): 234-1/271-1/281-2/393-1/341-1. Last March England won an extraordinary encounter defending 234. This despite Kane Williamson hitting an unbeaten 112. Spin was the dominant factor with Ish Sodhi, Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali taking eight between them. Moeen was man of the match with four.

Punters unsure about India

There definitely seems to be a belief on the match odds market that India have checked out of this one. The 1.875/6 available suggests that further first-team regulars could be given the day off and a virtual reserve team takes to the field.

With Kohli, Dhoni, Shami and, of course, Jasprit Bumrah out, that's four gun players. Few international sides can cope with the spine of their team being removed.

If we could be sure that Dhoni would come back and both Rohit and Shikhar were safe, then we might play. Also given the history of spin at the ground - and New Zealand's consistent problems throughout the series against it - you couldn't be labelled crazy for reckoning India are the value.

We have an aversion to betting favourites, though, and almost always our first reaction is to find a case for the outsider. With the Kiwis it is simple. They are a chasing team, on a chasing ground off the back off an impressive 'chase' win. The 2.111/10 is worth an interest. Four years ago New Zealand thumped India on this ground, too.

Williamson ground form

Williamson is 5/2 (Sportsbook) for top New Zealand runscorer and he should have a good vibe following the knock against England. His record there is excellent. In eight innings he has one century and four half-centuries, one of them in 2014.

It's an average of 54 (including not outs as a completed innings). In comparison to Martin Guptill (36.5) and Ross Taylor (32.2) it's an edge. Guptill's form is poor. But Taylor's is sensational and he notched a ton in the head-to-head. The latter, then, is more suited to take on Williamson. Both are 7/2, as is new opener Nicholls.

Rohit still value

Rohit is 5/2 (Sportsbook) for top India runscorer, and as explained in Hawk Eye last time, it is good value. Rohit is the stand-in skipper in the absence of Kohli and he has been more reliable even with the great man in the team. Shikhar is 7/2 with Gill priced at 4s. Dinesh Karthik catches the ey at 7s with Dhoni at 6.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2019: +9.59
2018: +20.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l