New Zealand v India Fifth T20 Betting: Another road could make for close affair

Ed Hawkins
01 February 2020

Guptill has ground form

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Ed Hawkins previews game five from Mount Manganui on Sunday with the weak Kiwis 4-0 down...

"Although they are masters of the meltdown, they are trading at miniscule odds which makes them the perfect trading partner"

New Zealand v India
Sunday 2 February, 07:00
Live on Sky Sports

Williamson likely to be absent again

After the big freeze in Hamilton, New Zealand's brain failed to thaw in Wellington. Back-to-back ties with the game in their pocket has enhanced their reputation as bottle jobs extraordinaire.

The numbers are breathtaking. Three from five needed in game three and three from four in game four are barely believable chokes. The betting numbers are even more astonishing. Over the course of those two matches just shy of £4.6 million was matched on the Kiwis at 1.021/50 or shorter. Some sort of record one would have thought.

It has been a clown's masterclass in throwing away winning positions since game one, when they failed to defend 203. Lord knows what they will manage in the ODI series that follows.

Kane Williamson, who missed the fourth game with a shoulder injury, is unlikely to be risked so Tim Southee will skipper in his absence.

Possible XI: Guptill, Munro, Seifert, Bruce, Taylor, Mitchell, Santner, Kuggeleijn, Southee, Sodi, Bennett

Bumrah might be rested

India really should be tide at 2-2. Instead they have been afforded the luxury of resting players and giving fringe players a run out in an effort to hone their squad ahead of the World T20.

Rohit Sharma missed out in Wellington along with Mohammad Shami and Ravi Jadeja. They will probably be given the day off again. Washington Sundar, the all-rounder, replaced Jadeja and Navdeep Saini came in for Shami.

Could Jasprit Bumrah be given some time off too? With Shardul Thakar man of the match they can afford to go without him and once again pair spinners Kuldeep Yadav and Yuz Chahal.

Possible XI: Samson, Rahul, Kohli, Iyer, Dube, Pandey, Sundar, Chahal, Saini, Thakur, Bumrah

Runs aplenty

In 30 Twenty20 matches at Bay Oval (including domestic), the first innings average is 151. In internationals, it's pretty clear as to how the pitch is shaping up in terms of characteristics. It's a bat first, go at more than nine an over and win the match surface. Here are the five scores from the completed matches (most recent first): 181-1(night)/243-1(night)/194-1/195-1/182-1. All were won by the side batting first. No captain, surely would go against such a record if they won the toss.

Kiwis still a great trade

It's easy to scoff at the 2.3811/8 available about New Zealand. Surely it should be bigger? But the fact is that they have dominated the last two matches and in the first they were in the box seat for the first half.

Although they are masters of the meltdown, they are trading at miniscule odds which makes them the perfect trading partner. But as we said before Wellington, keep the tie on side. You can't rely on them to get over the line. India are 1.664/6.

Long term, those sort of odds are poor about this India team. The series scoreline is the epitome of flattery.

Munro has ground form

Martin Guptill has consecutive fifties at the Bay Oval. Colin Munro has a century and a fifty in his last three innings there. Not surprisingly, Munro tops the run charts at the venue (he also notched another century) and he averages 58 at a strike rate of 183. Guptill, who averages 57 at a rate of 138, is 13/5 with Sportsbook for top Kiwi bat and Munro 16/5. Tim Seifert looks big if he bats at No 3 again.

Sanju Samson is no 5/1 shot. Sportsbook should be shorter considering he opened the batting last time. It would seem harsh if he had only one opportunity.

On an expected road, it might be wise to play the fifties market. Openers should be to the fore considering the opportunities they have to blitz in the powerplay and bat for longest. Munro is 11/4, KL Rahul 9/4 and Rohit 11/5.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2020: -15.02
2019: +36.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l