India v Afghanistan Third ODI: Back Zadran at 3/1 in Chennai runfest

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Saturday 20 June, 09.00
TV: TNT Sports

India v Afghanistan third ODI team news

India have added Harshit Rana to the squad after the fast-bowler returned from a long-term injury. Rana, who can also give it a whack with the bat, improves their balance and returns to the fold follwing a knee injury sustained just before he was expected to play a role in the T20 World Cup. He also missed the Indian Premier League.

Whether Rana plays remains to be seen. They could hand a rest to Arshdeep Singh but he took three wickets last time out for a 2-0 series lead. Prince Yadav impressed on debut while Gurnoor Brar also took three.

There is no recall for Hardik Pandya. Pandya has suffered a leg strain in a training camp in Bangalore. A double failure for Yas Jaiswal puts him under pressure. They could move up Ishan Kishan to open if they want to look at Nitish Kumar Reddy.

Possible XI: Jaiswal, Rohit, Gill, Ishan, Shreyas, Rahul, Sundar, Rana, Brar, Kuldeep, Prince

Afghanistan are having a poor tour. Stuffed by an innings in the one-off Test, they have now lost by seven wickets and 170 runs in the two ODI respetively. They have not even been competitive.

The pace bowling group looks dreadfully naive and they could ill-afford to lose Mohammad Nabi and Azmatullah Omarzai in the build-up. Nabi was ill so could return but Azmatullah picked up an injury. They desperately need their experience.

One bright spot was three wickets for spinner Nangeyalia Kharote. They could do with some runs from main batting man Ibrahim Zadran.

Possible XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahim, Atal, Rahmat, Rasooli, Hashmatullah, Kharote, Rashid, Ghazanfar, Saleem, Bilal

India v Afghanistan third ODI pitch report

There have only been six ODI played at Chennai in the last five years, all in 2023. The runs per over was 5.26 and only one first-innings bust 285.5. Spin has been to the fore with three tweakers taking four wickets in an innings and one (Kuldeep Yadav) a five-for. Has the nature of the Chepauk changed, however?

We saw in the IPL that a once tired and sluggish surface has morphed into a road. This might have had something to do with a change in the draining system. Around 2023 was exactly the time to expect lower surfaces, which explains mean batting totals. This could be different, though, and India would expect to be dominating again, although another score of 400 may be pushing it.

The early angle may be to gamble on innings runs. Playing overs at 283.5 at 5/61.84 is an option. Unders would have won four of the last five so that would be a wager which very much goes against the trend. If the toss was to go our way we would, of course, have a massive edge in our favour with India batting first.

India v Afghanistan third ODI match prediction

We're looking for Afghanistan to be competitive. No more than that. It is very hard to start making a case for them at the odds, even if this is supposed to be their best format. Sportsbook go 13/27.50 but a trade is the more likely option on the Exchange.

That would have to come with a caveat. They must bat first. If India get the opportunity on what we expect to be a very good batting wicket, it could be another messy contest for the visitors. It's a shame that Chennai might not be a spin paradise.

If we were more confident that there might be some grip for the spinners, Afghanistan might be worth a straight shot. In Kharote, Rashid Khan and Allah Ghazanfar they have 30 overs of potency. Nabi would have been a useful operator, too. The pitch report may say different, although one cannot always gurantee those working on the role for television know what they're looking at.

If Aghanistan do bat first, they might be able to get a foothold with a starting price on the Exchange in the 6.5011/2 region. The plan would be able to get three clicks out of that to start looking at ways to lay back.

India v Afghanistan third ODI player bets

On an expected flat one, milestone batting has to be the way to go if you fancy runs from the hosts. Rohit Sharma is due a big score so the 11/82.38 that he knocks off a 50 could be the way to go.

He was just shy in game two and looks to be seeing it nicely. Rohit is one of those players for whom you need the comfort blanket of evidence that he is in the mood. With an array of opening talent around deomestically, he can't afford to rest on his laurels. For Afghanistan we'll bet Zadran for top bat. He is overdue.

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