India v South Africa Third T20 Tips: Bowlers out of Lucknow as runfest incoming

• Axar out, Bumrah a doubt

• India lead 2-1 with two to play
• Lucknow surface has been a road

• Abhishek has good hitting record

• Sportsbook special to bet India

India v South Africa
Wednesday 17 December, 13:30
TV: Live on TNT

India v South Africa third T20 team news

India were without Axar Patel and Jasprit Bumrah when they took a 2-1 lead in Dharamsala. Axar has been confirmed as an absentee again due to illness while it is is unclear whether Bumrah, who missed out for personal reasons, will be available.

Kuldeep Yadav and Harshit Rana came in and both took two wickets in a one-sided contest. Shabaz Ahmed has been added to the group for Axar but is not expected to play.

We note another failure from Suryakumar Yadav. At this rate, with talent on the bench so to speak, it is becoming increasingly hard to justify the skipper's spot.

Possible India XI: Abhishek, Gill, Tilak, Yadav, Jitesh, Hardik, Dube, Rana, Kuldeep, Varun, Arshdeep

South Africa were rolled for 117 in chilly night conditions in Dharamsala as pace, seam and swing wrecked their top order. They may write it down as a one-off and keep faith with their line-up, although adding depth in the form of George Linde is an option.

Corbin Bosch returned to the XI and batted at No 5 with David Miller deemed surplus to requirements. There is a chance Marco Jansen may be in need of a rest so Miller or Linde in for him wouldn't be a huge surprise. Lungi Ngidi may also get a rest with Lutho Sipamla and Keshav Maharaj also on the sideline.

Possible South Africa XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Markram, Stubbs, Brevis, Bosch, Ferreira, Linde, Baartman, Ngidi, Nortje

India v South Africa third T20 pitch report

There have been 25 night matches played at Lucknow with no evidence of a toss bias. The average runs per over is a healthy 8.48 while there has been a strong indication in the last year that this is a road. Lucknow posted 227 in the most recent IPL match played at the ground. More than 200 has been busted in three of the last six.

Sportsbook's 11/102.11 that both teams hit 170 is a good jumping off point. That would have been a winner in six of the last ten. Both teams for 200 is 17/29.50, which has won twice in the same period.

We also note the sixes line at over 16.5, which could be too low even though the overs price is 8/111.73. In the last three the tallies have been: 21-23-19

India v South Africa third T20 match prediction

India have 11 wins in their last 14 on home soil. Fancy backing them at 5/61.84 for another win? Of course you do. The caveat is that Sportsbook ask them to make and concede 150 or more. It's not the worst wager in the world when you consider the pitch report, the form guide and skinny exchange prices on the match odds at 1.392/5. India are 11/82.38 for the win with both teams making 160.

There is a trade angle as well if we're right about this Lucknow surface. South Africa have already shown in this series that they are a force to be reckoned with on a good track. They won in Mullanpur when getting first use, posting a whopping 213. We expect them to go off at more than the 3.002/1 mark but could well make this a choice affair by the break.

India v South Africa third T20 player bets

Abhishek Sharma has found shotmaking easy at this venue in the past, striking at a massive 192 across six matches with two fifities. He could go back-to-back on top bats after a winner for us last time but milestone betting is often the way to play on flat tracks as it takes team-mates out of the equation. Sportsbook go 11/53.20 that he reaches 50.

Reeza Hendricks is a SA batter who can be tricky to predict but we do know from win rate, despite a duck last time, that he should be close to a score. The 7/24.50 that he reaches a fifty is a good way to play.

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