India v South Africa third T20 Tips: South Africa have live chance for upset again

• SA hit back to level five-match series

• Dharamsala conditions trying in the cold
• Trade chance for visitors again

• Abhishek a 16/54.20 bet

India v South Africa
Sunday 14 December, 13:30
TV: Live on TNT

India v South Africa third T20 team news

India had their wings clipped in game two, succumbing to a beating thanks to the old-fashioned scoreboard pressure. Their bowlers went round the park in Mullanpur on a flat one. It showed that they are human after all to some of the more basic trends of the format.

Whether India make changes remains to be seen. South Africa have looked vulnerable to spin with Varun Chakravarthy bowling well so it would make sense if they brought back Kuldeep Yadav to add an extra specialised threat. Shivam Dube could come out with Harshit Rana replacing Arshdeep Singh if India are worried about batting depth. Conditions will be key, though. But we'll get to that.

There are also concerns about the form of Shubman Gill and Suryakumar Yadav. Gill is coming back from injury but Sky's collapse from one of the most reliable top-bat bets in the world to a player who cannot be touched on two-year form is remarkable.

Possible India XI: Abhishek, Gill, Yadav, Tilak, Axar, Hardik, Jitesh, Harshit, Kuldeep, Varun, Bumrah

South Africa are back in the series consistent with a tremendous all-format performance on tour. They grasped the opportunity to go big in Mullanpur thanks to Quinton de Kock's firestarting. He hit 90 off 46. They lost their way in the middle part of the innings but the platform was there for Donovan Ferreira and David Miller to blitz at the death.

It would be a surprise if South Africa veered away from their four-man pace attack with Ferreira providing spin support. they have gone with George Linde over Keshav Maharaj as there is extra batting depth. 

Possible South Africa XI: De Kock, Markram, Stubbs, Brevis, Miller, Ferreira, Jansen, Linde, Sipamla, Baartman, Ngidi

India v South Africa third T20 pitch report

This is the latest T20 ever played at Dharamshala in terms of the calendar year. Late January or the Spring months are when matches are usually played there. And those Spring days provide superb batting conditions if three first-innings out of five busting 210 in May outings in IPL from 2023 are anything to go by. December is cold and the forecast is for temperatures of around 8-11 degrees. 

It is hard not to reckon that conditions are likely to be unpleasant for batters and bowlers. There could be swing or seam while work in the field may require extra layers and hand warmers. There is no toss bias. Sportsbook make be guilty of pricing sixes based on IPL in a totally different season and unders at 17.5 at 10/111.91 could be too high.

India v South Africa third T20 match prediction

South Africa proved that conditions - and getting the best of them - are key. So a gamble on a repeat in Dharmsala is not out of the question.

The good thing is that we don't have to be right about bats or bowlers dominating. If it is a flat wicket on a par with those IPL matches then South Africa can go well batting first. And if there is seam, swing and chill then they have the unit to do some damage.

The jumping off point is to consider a trade on the visitors from 3.052/1. They can absolutely make this a choice affair so looking to trade out at that 1.9110/11 mark is an option.

India v South Africa third T20 player bets

Arshdeep does have good experience of Dharmsala as a Punjab player. He has seven wickets in five matches. There is a vibe that the quicks do well here because of the potential for seam and swing. He is 3/14.00 for top India bowler.

We keep faith with Abhishek Sharma for top bat. He is in the win zone and has a 27.5% return rate in his last 29. Sportsbook offer 16/54.20 and there didn't seem to be much wrong with his timing when smoking two sixes in Mullanpur. There's certainly not much to beat when Gill and Sky's form is considered. We do note the 12s about Axar Patel, though, who batted at No 3 last time. For South Africa Reeza Hendricks is not a 4/15.00 chance on win rate. 

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