India v South Africa Fifth T20 Tips: Ahmedabad runfest incoming

• Bumrah back but Gill is a doubt

• India lead 2-1 with one to play
• Ahmedabad surface has been a road

• Milestone betting for batters the strategy

• Sportsbook special to bet India 

India v South Africa
Friday 19 December, 13:30
TV: Live on TNT

India v South Africa fifth T20 team news

India cannot lose the series after fog meant the contest in Lucknow was abandoned without a ball bowled. Whether Jasprit Bumrah would have played remains to be seen but he is definitely back for this one in his home city. Axar Patel has been ruled out however, Shahbaz Ahmed, his replacement in the squad, is unlikely to feature.

Shubman Gill is a doubt with a toe injury so Sanju Samson stands by. Samson would open alongside Abhishek Sharma. India will make a call on wehether they use Harshit Rana or Washington Sundar at No 8. Skip Suryakumar Yadav is on a horror runs and is dire need of a score. Kuldeep Yadav is likely to miss out. 

Possible India XI: Abhishek, Gill/Samson, Tilak, Yadav, Jitesh, Hardik, Dube, Rana, Varun, Arshdeep, Bumrah

South Africa may be spooked by being rolled for 117 in Dharamsala. As a result they could add batting depth with George Linde at No 9 instead of Keshav Maharaj. Corbin Bosch could bat anywhere between No 5-8.

Bosch and Marco Jansen are hugely important as all-rounders allowing them to add that batting depth. Two pacers from three of Lungi Ngidi, Ottniel Baartman and Anrich Nortje are likely to form their bowling unit. 

Possible South Africa XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Markram, Stubbs, Brevis, Miller, Bosch, Ferreira, Linde, Baartman, Ngidi/Nortje

India v South Africa fifth T20 pitch report

unlike previous venues in this series, Ahmedabad should not be affected by the damp and cold wintry season. There have been 21 night matches in T20 played at the ground in the last three years with a slight bias for the side batting first, who have won 13 of them.

The run rate in that period is a whopping 9.49 so it is fair to reckon that runs are on the cards. More than 200 has been busted in nine of those first-innings, with six in the last eight. Both teams to reach 180 is a 7/52.40 chance. That has won six in the last ten. Both teams for 200 is an 11/26.50 chance. That has won three times in the last ten. 

India innings runs batting first could be underestimated slightly. Anything in that 190 region on the par line would be an overs play. Sportsbook make over 16.5 match sixes an 8/111.73 chance. That has won in 13 of those 21 games. 

India v South Africa fifth T20 match prediction

India have 11 wins in their last 14 on home soil and batting first in Ahmedabad they really should be capable of putting down a score to make it 12. The 11/102.11 that they win and both teams score 160 or more could be an easy way of getting with them.

Otherwise there is a trade chance on the South Africans if they bat first. With the pitch expected to be full of runs they should be capable, as they have shown all tour, of sticking it to India. The contest across all formats between these two has been one for the ages and they should be confident of setting up another thriller.

A trade on the Betfair Exchange may be possible here. At the break, if there is more than 180 on the board a big chunk will have come off South Africa's starting price of around 3.002/1. Add 50% to the original stake on the lay button at 2.001/1 and you have a profit on every outcome. 

India v South Africa fifth T20 player bets

It is a bit of a shame for Gill if a foot problem keeps him out of his return to his home IPL ground. As one would expect, he has an excellent record there with four tons and four fifties in 17 innings. As ever on a road we favour milestone betting as we don't have to worry about what others are up to. There is no price on a Gill fifty but his in-play runs should bet at around the 27.5 mark. Samson averages a shade under 40 at the venue and is 11/43.75 for a fifty. For South Africa Reeza Hendricks could deliver. Often a solid top-bat option the 7/24.50 for a fifty is pretty much the same wager. 

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