India v New Zealand first T20 tips: Kiwis clear value for another upset

• India in need of a confidence boost

• No Gill or Tilak for hosts
• Bracewell injury hampers Kiwis
• Toss bias in Nagpur
• Win rates for key players

India v New Zealand
Wednesday January 21, 08.00
TV: Live on TNT

India v New Zealand first T20 team news

India are under pressure after losing a home ODI series to a reserve New Zealand team. With the T20 World Cup fast-approaching next month they are in need of a confidence-restoring series success.

They have not included Shubman Gill in their squad. Suryakumar Yadav, the skip, is having a dreadful run and he will need runs to ensure the focus is not on him when the tournament begins. Tilak Varma is out for the first three matches so Rinku Singh could come into the middle order and Shreyas Iyer may be asked to play an anchor role.

Jasprit Bumrah and Arshdeep Singh are excellent new- and old-ball options. Spin pair Varun Chakravarthy and Kuldeep Yadav should be paired.

Possible India XI: Abhishek, Samson, Sky, Shreyas, Rinku, Hardik, Axar, Kuldeep, Varun, Bumrah, Arshdeep

New Zealand have welcomed back Mitch Santner, the captain, Jacob Duffy, Matt Henry, Mark Chapman and Rachin Ravindra to the white-ball set-up. They could be at full-strength but Michael Bracewell is a late series doubt with a calf problem.

As a result Kristian Clarke, the fast-bowling all-rounder from Northern Districts, has been added to the squad for the first three matches of the series. The main beneficiary of Bracewell's injury may be Ish Sodhi. Kyle Jamieson may have to be sacrficed with Jimmy Neesham preferred for extra batting depth and a couple of overs of pace off with the ball. 

Possible New Zealand XI: Conway, Robinson, Ravindra, Chapman, Mitchell, Phillips, Neesham, Santner, Sodhi, Duffy, Henry

India v New Zealand first T20 pitch report

There have been 16 matches at Nagpur under lights and 11 of those have been won by the team batting first. The run rate is 7.4 so an attritional affair could be expected. Five of the last six have seen first-innings scores come under the 150 mark. The first point of call will be a check on India runs on the par line if they bat first. It could be the market goes straight to auto mode and chucks in a mid 180s or high 170s quote. That would warrant a short. Sportsbook's 9/25.50 that no fifty is scored in the match has appeal also. 

India v New Zealand first T20 match prediction

New Zealand are masters at upsetting the odds and at 3.505/2 they surely deserve more respect. Their 2-1 win in the ODI series was another reminder that they are continually underrated. The fact that conditions could be a leveller for individual ability is also an important factor.

But the idea that India are so far ahead in terms of talent doesn't sit right. Even if it was true, the Kiwis squeeze every last drop from their resources and often more organised and efficient in delivering on their plans.

Backing New Zealand with the toss bias in their favour makes sense. If we're right about the pitch a score of 160 may well be their target and they can then take pace off with an army of useful operators to cause more problems for the hosts.

India v New Zealand first T20 ODI player bets

There are four players to keep an eye on in this series in terms of historic win rates. The first three are for India. Abhishek Sharma, the opener, has copped at a rate of 38% so the 7/24.50 with Sportsbook is clear value. However, we will take a risk and wait for a flatter surface to get with him. At least one from Varun and Kuldeep is going to win India top bowler at some stage with rates at 25% and 50% respectively although Kuldeep's record is over ten games. Varun is 3/14.00 and Kuldeep 11/43.75. For the Kiwis, Duffy wins top bowler at 31% but the inclusion of Henry, who missed a chunk of those matches, is a complication. He is 11/43.75. 

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