The Hundred Tips Matches 13 and 14: Toss key for Brave and MSG to hit back

Southern Brave v Birmingham Phoenix The Hundred Tips

Click here for Southern Brave v Birmingham Phoenix odds
Thursday 30 July, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Southern Brave have lost all three of their matches so far and are now effectively playing knockout cricket. Five wins have been needed for the top three in the last two editions.

They have a good chance of snapping their losing sequence here. But only if the toss goes their way. There's a more than 70% bias for the chaser in Southampton. They were on the wrong end of it against MI London last time out, despite fighting hard in an attempt to defend 130.

As stated previously, their batting strategy has been to pack the XI with finishers. They are a top-order specialist light. There's also the quirk of Jofra Archer failing to take a wicket in three games.

Phoenix were outclassed by Manchester Super Giants, clipping their wings after they came out on top in a runfest against Trent Rockets. Their balance has been impacted by the loss of Jacob Bethell to injury. That was evident when being razed for 100 against MSG. Rehan Ahmed is more hit and miss at No 3.

Given that both teams are struggling one could be forgiven for swerving this. But the toss bias is a huge boost for punters and makes the post=toss decision simple. Back the chaser.

At this stage, however, Phoenix are rated as outsiders at 2.1011/10. We're not convinced the market will shift post-toss so in an ideal world they would get to chase. Either way we're likely to be on a 1.9010/11 chance which has a hit rate of 70%. Simples.

Manchester Super Giants v Trent Rockets The Hundred Tips

Click here for Manchester Super Giants v Trent Rockets odds
Friday 31 July, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Manchester Super Giants were looking like the best side in the tournament before they ran into Sunrisers on the road that is Leeds. Indeed, even at the break they were the team to beat.

Having posted 181 and started strongly in the field in the powerplay, a third win appeared to be routine. Then Mitchell Marsh happened. When Marsh started to motor MSG's pace attack suddenly looked short of answers.

It was hard not to wonder: where was the variation? Noor Ahmad and Liam Dawson were also fodder but they lacked a bowler who could mix it up in line, length and pace. A Marcus Stoinis, Benny Howell sort. It was all very samey for Marsh, and then Zak Crawley, to hit through the lines.

They are back at Old Trafford for this contest against Rockets, who are also not shy in planting a front foot and going for the big boom with the bat. The surface, however, might not be conducive to that. It is one of the lowest-scoring in the tournament with runs and boundaries at a premium.

Noor and Dawson are more in the game at Old Trafford than in Leeds and that could make the difference. The chance to back MSG at 1.804/5, therefore, is one to take.

We expect them to reestablish themselves as a major force. Previously it was fair to reckon that Messrs Tongue, Baker and Atkinson were going to be extremely hard to score against when the pressure was one. We shouldn't park that notion just because of one game. On wickets which give assistance to bowlers, they really should be strong. There is no toss bias at OT.

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