South Africa v Australia Third ODI Tips: Chaser could be in trouble as hosts target whitewash

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Wednesday 30 September, 12.30
TV: Sky Sports

South Africa v Australia third ODI team news

South Africa have the series won and they've done it with a third-string pace attack. The opportunity to whitewash Australia doesn't come around that often so it is a surprise that they are considering some changes.

Marco Jansen, for example, may come out with Nqobani Mokeona, the right-arm quick, in the frame to come in and bowl as fast as possible. Duan Jansen will play the all-rounder role.

Tony de Zorzi could replace Aiden Markram again at the top of the order with Ryan Rickleton batting at No 3. Cricinfo have also reported that Temba Bavuma may be rested with Keshav Maharaj leading.

Possible XI: De Kock, De Zorzi, Rickleton, Breetzke, Stubbs, Miller, D Jansen, Fortuin, Maharaj, Mokeona, Williams

Australia are beaten and broken. Players are dropping like flies. Nathan Ellis is the latest to be ruled with a side strain. Josh Hazlewood is due to be rested.

That means that Pat Cummins comes back in. With Jack Edwards untouchable after a five-for, and Xavier Bartlett hitting a belligerent 50, the focus must surely be on Cameron Green's place at No 6.

Green has failed twice with the bat and hasn't bowled. Oliver Peake, the spin-bowling all-rounder, could slot in for his first appearance of the tour. Josh Inglis has already been ruled out.

Probable XI: Marsh, Head, Connolly, Carey, Renshaw, Peake, Edwards, Bartlett, Cummins, Starc, Zampa

South Africa v Australia third ODI pitch report 

There have been five completed ODI day-night matches at Senwes Park. Four of those have been won by the side batting first. There is, however, a 10-year gap between the most recent of those in 2023 and the previous one. The match three years ago saw South Africa rattle up 338 against Australia and win with ease. Gerald Coetzee took four wickets.

After two bat-dominated matches, the bowlers could be to the fore in this one. That's largely because of the weather forecast. Thunderstorms and rain are forecast, although predictions are not bad enough to suggest that a whole load of overs could be lost.

Extreme unders for the chaser could be a strategy in-play if there's bend and movement assisted by the lights and overheads. Cheap lays for under 180-200 could be a decent starting point.

Pre-toss the under 294.5 with Betfair Sportsbook for total first-innings runs has appeal. No hundred in the match at 6/52.20 and no fifty in first-innings at 5/16.00 may have appeal as well.

South Africa v Australia third ODI match prediction 

The first point to make about the match odds on this game on the Betfair Exchange is that, in isolation, South Africa deserve more respect than the 2.166/5.

They are 2-0 up and have bossed a confused and weakened Australia. The odds should be the other way round. The Aussies have not looked like defending world champs for some time and, pre-toss at least, the 2.8537/20 is a stinker of a price.

This should be a choice affair, not only because of the potential importance of the toss bias. But the market so rarely takes any bias into account. We don't expect South Africa's odds to change if the flip goes their way.

Indeed, if it does then you have a perfectly acceptable wager. Australia can only be considered if they're batting first and they get closer up to the even money mark in-play.

South Africa v Australia third ODI player tips 

Gambling on batting second being tricky is the focus for the top batsman markets. Could we get a big-priced middle-to lower-order winner here?

For the hosts, Tristan Stubbs is looking chunky at 17/29.50. Likewise Bjorn Fortuin who could bat a place higher at No 8. Fortuin has eight first-class centuries which is all-rounder status.

For Australia, Cummins is the go-to option in T20 normally when a wicket may be a bit spicy. The 55s might not be big enough down at No 9, though. Peake and Edwards at 13s and 14s have more appeal.

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