India v New Zealand Fifth T20 Tips: Back hosts in chase with in-play bet strategy

• India a bet batting second

• Kiwis have been competitive
• Samson under pressure for runs
• Allen bolsters Kiwi batting
• Kuldeep & Yadav reliable
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India v New Zealand
Saturday 31 January, 13.30
TV: Live on TNT

India v New Zealand fifth T20 team news

India have an unassailable 3-1 lead but they would have been disappointed to let New Zealand grab a consolation win in Vizag. Although the series has been overwhelmingly positive for the hosts, it has been less helpful for Sanju Samson who appears to have flunked his audition for the World Cup.

Samson just needed a score in this series to secure his spot it seemed. But four failures and Ishan Kishan's form means he is under pressure. With Tilak Varma due to come back from injury for the World Cup, Samson could lose out to Ishan.

Ishan is a minor injury doubt for this one so Shreyas Iyer could get a game. India may pair Asrhdeep Singh and Jasprit Bumrah with the ball. Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakravarthy could swap in and out as the main spinner. Axar patel could also return.

Possible India XI: Abhishek, Samson, Ishan/Shreyas, Sky, Hardik, Rinku, Dube, Harshit/Axar, Kuldeep/Varun, Bumrah, Arshdeep

New Zealand are boosted by the availability of Finn Allen after his Big Bash stint. Allen's hitting should mean Devon Conway makes way in a major positive for New Zealand.

The Allen-Tim Seifert combo at the top revolutionises the Kiwi approach. It is much-needed with plenty of hitting in the middle- to lower-order and Conway's race should really be run now.

New Zealand are close to full-strength as the World Cup approaches. Michael Bracewell may be ready to return from a calf injury. Lockie Ferguson may also be considered key in a best XI. Jimmy Neesham could offer added batting depth and a third seam option.

Possible New Zealand XI: Allen, Seifert, Ravindra, Phillips, Chapman, Mitchell, Neesham, Bracewell, Santner, Ferguson, Henry

India v New Zealand fifth T20 pitch report

There have been 18 T20 matches at the Greenfield Stadium spanning 2017-2023. The runs per over mark was 7.4. But only four of those were night matches, when the rate rises by a run. That is not surprising considering the study sample but it also has a lot to do with a run-laded T20 three years ago. 

India amassed 235 against Australia, who replied with 191. India's batting tends to make minemeat of histroic trends these days so it wouldn't be a surprise if more than 200 was on the menu again. Increasingly this feels like par these days. The New Zealand batting, thanks to Allen, is now more confident of adding to its recent run gluts.

Betfair Sportsbook's sixes line for the match at overs 19.5 may be slightly too low given the power of both sides. Indeed, 25 were hit in that Indo-Aus contest. 

India v New Zealand fifth T20 match prediction

India's match odds have been clipped slightly after defeat in Vizag from 1.271/4 to 1.331/3 with New Zealand 3.9029/10. Given the starting prices this contest is one for in-play.

The toss is key in that regard and offers strong trading options, if it goes the way we want it to - that is to say we don't want India to bat first. In that scenario the market is unlikely to do much shifting because the hosts should bust more than 200.

However, if New Zealand bat first there are two potential plays. An in-out trade on the Kiwis requires setting around nine to 10 an over and then an early wicket. They have managed it twice this series to go odds-on quickly when defending.

Alternatively, and this requires the least gymnastics, back India in the chase with an early wicket against them. The market will offer respect to the Kiwis and India were pushed out to 3.1085/40 in game four. Although they failed to get up, they are not perturbed by an early wicket and will keep striking. Look for a choice affair in-play with india batting second at the 1.834/5 mark. 

India v New Zealand fifth T20 ODI player bets

The shrewd money here may be on dutching Kuldeep and Varun for top India bowler. We don't expect both to play as they have swapped in and out respectively, allowing each other to pick up the win. Both are win-rate value at Sportsbook's 3/14.00.

Going with a spinner on a potentially flat wicket makes sense because pace bowlers look vulnerable, particularly in the death overs, to high economy. Remember this market is not settled as a dead heat so the bowler conceding fewest runs wins.

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