England v Pakistan Third Test Tips: Shambolic tourists may get worse - hosts can win in three days

Click here for England v Pakistan odds
Wednesday 9 September, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports

England v Pakistan third Test team news

England have left out Brydon Carse from the squad for the third Test after being arrested outside a Derby nightclub in late August. Sonny Baker, the Hampshire quick, is his replacement. There is no place, either, for Matt Fisher.

That may give a clue as to how minded England are to give a rest to their rapid pace attack. Gus Atkinson, Jofra Archer and Josh Tongue are all part of the white-ball squad to take on Sri Lanka and there is an argument they could, or at least one of them, be kept fresh for that contest.

But Pakistan have hardly kept England in the field for long periods. It may be that Baker comes in just for Archer. Shoaib Bashir may also come into contention while Essex's Sam Cook remains an option. There is a world where Archer, Tongue and Atinson are rested with Baker, Cook and Bashir playing instead.

Probable XI: Duckett, Gay, Cox, Root, Brook, Lawrence, Smith, Atkinson, Robinson, Archer, Tongue

Pakistan have reacted with typical irrational style to the 2-0 scoreline; they have sacked the head coach and bowling coach and sent home seven players.

Mike Hesson and Ashley Noffke are head coach and bowling coach respectively. Mohammad Rizwan, Imam-ul-Haq, Salman Agha, Aamer Jamal, Awais Zafar, Ali Usman and Khurram Shahzad have been axed.

Five uncapped players have been added: Arafat Minhas, Mohammad Imran Junior, Saad Baig, Mohammad Imran Randhawa and Razaullah. Saim Ayub, who has been playing in the CPL, has been parachuted in to open the batting while Abdullah Fazal could join him. Ghazi Gouri will take the gloves from Rizwan but his own coach has said he's not sure whether he's "mentally ready" for the step up.

Chaos doesn't quite cover it. Presumably one of Minhas or Randhawa, all-rounders both, has to play. Minhas is a slow left-arm spinner so Randhawa may be in pole. Sajid Khan, the moustachioed spinner who can bat, and Ubaid Shah the pacer are also probable picks because they survived the cull.

Possible XI: Ayub, Fazal, Masood, Babar, Shafique, Shakeel, Ghouri, Randhawa, Sajid, Ubaid, Abbas

England v Pakistan third Test pitch report 

Edgbaston is supposed to be England's fortress but they have won two of their last four in the Tests played there in the last five years. That has much to do with a pitch which has not been one to deteriorate. Witness Australia's come-from-behind win in 2023 when they got up from 227 for eight to chase 281.

This is borne out by the average runs per wicket by innings, which is almost four runs higher in the fourth than it is in the first.

Average runs per wicket by innings last four Tests at Edgbaston
1^st 44.1
2^nd 36.3
3^rd 31.1
4^th 48.4

Three of the four Tests have been won by the side batting second unsurprisingly. Extending the study sample to the last ten years, though, and we get another four games which render it a fifty-fifty split.

England took a beating against India last summer, conceding 587 and 427 despite a sandwich filling of 407 from themselves. Batting was very good indeed.

It hasn't looked particularly flat in the Championship this season, though. In 21 innings there have been eight all-out scores for fewer than 200. One does wonder whether the heatwave and pressure (perhaps) from the ECB to get a pitch which lasts to boost coffers means that too much store in those games should be resisted.

Of course England and Pakistan have been playing on different strips anyway and it may not matter. As ever. The strategy remains the same for Pakistan in-play on runs. A 30-run partnership is the signal to start shorting their total runs on the Exchange. A bit of cloud cover for day one and spot of rain for day two will do little to reckon they suddenly morph into a batting unit capable of posting competitive scores.

England v Pakistan third Test match prediction

The notion that Pakistan can, with a wave of a hand and a swish of the axe, suddenly find four, five or six extra players to make them competitive in this series is fanciful. They look a thoroughly demoralised outfit, unsure and afraid of even taking a step over the white line because of the consequences.

Betting focus is on how England win and by how many. The first port of call is the 9/43.25 from Sportsbook that England win by an innings. On a historically good batting wicket at least, England should be capable of scoring enough in one innings even with a slightly improved Pakistan show (not that we're expecting it). Pakistan have lost a wicket just shy of every five overs in this series so one should not count on them being able to bat time. It would take a monumental improvement to bat three sessions.

Next up for consideration is the 7/24.50 that England win inside three days. Without rain at Lord's England would have won that bet. The forecast is better for Birmingham and it could be argued that this bet is strikingly similar to the inferior price on an innings win.

Using that Pakistan average for wickets lost gives a target of 100 overs to bowl at England, which is around one day and a session. The big -price gamble is the 50/151.00 that the match finishes on day one or two. That obviously requires Pakistan's bowlers to produce something, bowling England out inside 60 overs.

Bookmark Betting.Betfair for cricket tips on all the big games and tournaments