India v South Africa third ODI Tips: Back Rohit for runs in Vizag

• Series tied at 1-1 after thriller in Raipur

• Chaser could get the win on Saturday
• Vizag wicket is probably one for batters

• Burger and De Zorzi injuries give SA headache

• Indian star Rohit has ground form

India v South Africa
Saturday 6 November, 08.00
TV: Live on TNT

India v South Africa third ODI team news

India are struggling to find control in the field. They came under pressure fro Matt Breetzke and Marco Jansen in game one in a high chase but didn't heed the warning for Raipur as they failed to defend 358.

It's not entirely clear what the solution should be. They had six good bowling options, three of them spinners. They may double down and add an all-rounder who can bowl pace in the shape of Ntish Kumar Reddy. Prasidh Krishna may be vulnerable to the axe.

Otherwise old stagers Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli have looked in superb form. Kohli has back-to-back centuries.

Possible India XI: Jaiswal, Rohit, Kohli, Gaikwad, Rahul, Reddy, Sundar, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Harshit, Arshdeep

South Africa have shown great fight and spirit in twice going after big chases. They got over the line in game two thanks to Aiden Markram scoring a fine century. There were rapid, crucial cameos from Dewald Brevis and Corbin Bosch.

They do look likely to be without Nandre Burger, however. The pacer was unable to complete his overs due to injury. With Lungi Ngidi already drafted in Ottniel Baartman could come back into the XI. If South Africa think the pitch will take turn then Pren Subrayen will come into contention. Batter Tony de Zorzi is also a doubt with Ryan Rickleton potentially coming back.

Possible South Africa XI: De Kock, Markram, Bavuma, Rickleton, Breetzke, Brevis, Jansen, Bosch, Subrayen, Maharaj, Ngidi

India v South Africa third ODI pitch report

There have been eight day-night matches at Visakhapatnam. The run rate in those games is a shade under six and there is a chase bias with five winners batting second. 

Ordinarily we would expect runs but India were rolled for just 117 against Australia on this ground in 2023. The previous match saw them smash 387 against West Indies.

Given the consistency of run-making, though, an early way to get with the batters over the bowlers is going overs on the sixes line at 14.5 for 5/61.84. There were 28 in game one and 18 in game two.

India v South Africa third ODI match prediction

India are 1.4740/85 with India 2.8815/8. Those odds are to be expected but for a kick-off it has to be said that South Africa deserve more respect. They have been bang in each of the two games and there is a case to be made they were a little unfortunate not to be 2-0 up.

Certainly the blueprint is there for another trade on the Saffers. We have said consistently that they can do the hard yards and flip the odds. And that strategy should work again if they chase given the stats and toss bias. 

India, however, cannot be ruled out if they were batting second. With South Africa also leaking runs and the hosts masters in the chase, they could be a bet at the break at around the 1.9110/11 mark.

Either way, the ploy is to wait until the break, hope for a big score to get after and get with that team batting second. 

India v South Africa third ODI player bets

This could be a pitch which rewards milestone betting so Rohit Sharma, who has been such a consistent run-getter in the last two years, catches the eye at 9/25.50 for a ton and 6/42.50 for a 50. Kohli is 7/24.50 and 11/102.11 respectively.

Rohit hit 159 in that match against West Indies. Kohli also notched a ton against the same opposition but back in 2018. Of the two, Rohit would be top rated because he is overdue on top bat and despite his skill, Kohli might finally get a decent one with his name on.

Don't miss our special Ashes coverage HERE