India v South Africa First T20 tips: HP makes a tasty 9/1 top-bat bet

• Gill, Bumrah and Hardik are back for India

• South Africa shorn of pacers for first T20
• India are dominant in this format

• Barabati pitch is tricky to call

• Player win rates for tops markets

India v South Africa
Tuesday 9 December, 13:30
TV: Live on TNT

India v South Africa first T20 team news

India welcome back two game changers for the T20 series. Shubman Gill is fit and ready to go following the neck injury sustained in the Test series. Jasprit Bumrah's return is also welcome for the hosts.

All-rounder Hardik Pandya is named in the squad which is led by Suryakumar Yadav. There is no room for Yas Jaiswal, however. They have a plethora of options in the all-rounder batting slots. It is likely to be a fluid batting order. Shivam Dube doesn't make our XI but Tilak Varma and Abhishek Sharma could both be asked to bowl overs.

Possible India XI: Abhishek, Samson, Yadav, Tilak, Jitesh, Hardik, Axar, Sundar, Kuldeep, Harshit, Bumrah

South Africa have had an excellent tour despite losing the ODI series in the final game. They will be ruing their defeat from a position of strength with the bat. An unseemly collapse shouldn't affect confidence too much.

There are changes to the squad. Temba Bavuma and Matt Breetzke are not involved while Tony de Zorzi has pulled out injured. Marco Jansen and Corbin Bosch go again as the fulcrums.

David Miller and Reeza Hendricks make returns to the squad but there is no Kagiso Rabada or Nandre Burger. Kwena Maphaka has pulled out injured, too, so they might be a little light on pace. 

Possible South Africa XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Markram, Stubbs, Brevis, Ferreira, Jansen, Bosch, Linde, Maharaj, Baartman

India v South Africa first T20 pitch report

There have been only three T20i at the Barabati, the last of which was played in 2022 between these sides. India failed to defend 148. This was also the most recent game played there. There have also been only seven night matches in the format. The average run-rate in those games is 7.6. There is no toss bias from the study sample.

Back in the day in IPL there have been monster scores. Kings Punjab made 231 10 years ago in IPL against Chennai. Unfortunately there's just no trend to hang a wager on and it is a wait-and-see approach. 

As a guide for the Exchange par line, which is likely to set India runs at more than 180 batting first, the hosts average 164 in the last 10 and on average concede 153.  On the road South Africa  are 154 for and 156 against. Sportsbook offer India over 177.5 match runs.

India v South Africa first T20 match prediction

India are 1.511/2 with South Africa 2.91191/100. This is a very stiff task for the visitors with nine wins in 11 and a tie on their own soil for India. Indeed in only two of those matches (not including the one loss against England) did a team really lay a glove on them.

In their last match at home they smashed 247 against England then bowled them out for 97. More recently they won 2-1 in Australia and won the Asia Cup without breaking sweat.

It is fair to reckon, then, that South Africa need some help from conditions. They could get that if the Barabati surface is slow, low and rough, bringing spinners into play. A bit of dew wouldn't go amiss if they were chasing. Then South Africa may be considered as a trade option. 

India v South Africa first T20 player bets

The top India bowler market is a tricky one to call as there has been real churn in their personnel since the end of the last World Cup. Japsrit Bumrah has bowled eight times and won once while Kukdeep Yadav, the right jolly at 13/53.60, seems to have usurped Varun as the main spinner, winning five in eight. Varun is four is 21 and Arshdeep Singh four in 15. Washington Sundar catches the eye with three wins in 12. 

With the bat we have to get involved with the 9/110.00 about Hardik. He is solid at home on this market and in that study period of games he has won in line with a 4/15.00 chance. Abhishek Sharma is the man to beat at 3s with a win rate of 29%.

For South Africa Reeza Hendricks is often underrated but we like to see how he starts a series. We may play the 9/25.50 at some stage.

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