Ed Hawkins previews game two from Pune on Wednesday and after the tourists bucked a significant trend they should be capable of getting their noses in front...
"India’s defeat at the Wankhede was their first at home when batting first in three years. Previously they had a 100 per cent record from eight games when defending."
Trade New Zealand from [3.5] to [1.8]
India v New Zealand
Wednesday October 25 09.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
India suffered a surprise defeat to the Kiwis in game one in Mumbai when their batting line-up, Virat Kohli apart, never really got going. They need to rediscover their mojo in time for this one.
To be fair they were pegged back by excellent new-ball bowling from Trent Boult, who is one of the finest in the world. It was telling that only Kohli resisted.
A look at their line-up doesn't inspire much confidence. They rely on Kohli or Shikhar Dhawan and Rohit Sharma, the openers. Is Kedar Yadav, who looks at least one place too high at No 4, and Dinesh Karthik a middle-order engine which worries opposition? Probably not.
Manish Pandey or Ajinkya Rahane would add a bit more depth to that batting line-up.
Before game one we wrote about the Kiwis desperately needing to find some middle-order quality to take the pressure off the holy trinity of Martin Guptill, Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor. Tom Latham might just be the answer.
His century from No 5 solves an age-old problem and makes them a much more trustworthy unit with the bat from now on. It was an extremely smart move to move him down.
Together with Taylor he set about shoring up his team after they were on a wobble at 80 for three chasing 281. His strike rate of 101 was proof of a masterclass of organising a chase.
Boult's four wickets and Tim Southee's three kept in India in check but it was still no mean feat to go after this score in testing conditions.
There have been only two ODI in Pune. In 2013 Australia posted 304 and beat India by 72. In January England posted 350 but still lost to India by three wickets. It is fair to say it's a good wicket for batters then. England attacked with abandon. And were then pretty powerless in the face of an onslaught with 11 balls left. In the IPL 2017 matches there five from seven were won by the chaser.
India's defeat at the Wankhede was their first at home when batting first in three years. Previously they had a 100 per cent record from eight games when defending.
That is a significant trend-buster from the Kiwis, who surely now deserve more respect in the market than the [3.55] offered. India are [1.41] and the epitome of a miserable time.
Still, if getting with the tourists it may well be smart to keep India's historic record on side. Even at 8-1 it is a record which should not be sniffed at.
We are also a little worried about the vagaries of 'the dew factor'. It's often touted around as being crucial in India but no one ever really knows whether it's pivotal or not.
The stats from the IPL would suggest it is. Again, if you want to play safe then a trade on the Kiwis to favouritism might pay. They are more than capable of being in charge at [1.80] or shorter.
This is a 'home' venue for Dhoni and Rahane as they are both Rising Pune franchise members. But Kohli, following his ton, will be all the rage, particularly in the face of laconic efforts from Rohit and Dhawan. These two are rarely lighting the fires it seems. If Rahane comes in he will almost certainly bat at No 4.
We had a good delve into this market for our last Hawk Eye analysis here. So Latham's top-bat effort has added another layer. Williamson, if he goes off any bigger than [3.0], will always be value considering his hit-rate. As for Guptill, who might be half a point bigger, his record in Asia is just not very hot. He is averaging 26, a 17.25 run dip from his career mark.
Trade New Zealand from [3.5] to [1.8]
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l