Ed Hawkins returns with his statistical analysis to find trends and wrong prices for the final game of the series from Hyderabad on Friday
"Nicknamed ‘River’, Coulter-Nile has good experience of Indian conditions. He averages 1.24 wickets per game in IPL compared to a career mark of 1.22 in other domestics"
India v Australia
Friday October 12 14.30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Australia may have their eyes and minds on a bigger prize with the Ashes looming next month, but the group that remains in India are likely to be 'up' for the challenge of a surprise T20 series win in India.
After a comprehensive defeat in game one, Australia looked like a crew looking wistfully for home comforts after a beating in the ODI series. But a strong showing in Guwahati has given them a chance of an upset. And to pull it off they are likely to need big performances from two players with differing reputations - one big, one small.
One of those, naturally, is David Warner. The second is less well-known. Nathan Coulter-Nile is a hugely underrated performer for this country in T20. Only one of those, however, is likely to be well-backed to perform in the discipline he is employed for. Warner.
That's not surprising. Warner is considered Mr Consistent for Australia so he deserves star billing. He is 3/1 with Sportsbook and [3.75] on the exchange for top runscorer honours in the decider. And there will be many reckoning that he is due after two failures out of two.
However, it can't be argued that he is the right price here. Warner's consistency actually comes in the Test and ODI formats. You just need to look at the ICC rankings for proof. In the long game he is rated No 5 in the world. In ODI he is no 2. In Twenty20? He is way down in 17th.
The confusion comes, probably, because he is so inconsistent in the IPL where he is almost an even money shot for honours. That this form is not currently translating to the international arena maybe says something about the strength of IPL bowling attacks.
Still, many could be swayed to back him regardless, chiefly because the venue for game three is a homer for Warner. This is where his Sunrisers Hyderabad franchise play and look at his record there last season (T denotes top bat): 14/76T/70T/4/126T/40/6.
If not Warner then who? Well, Aaron Finch is No 2 in the world and is statistically more like a [2.75] chance than the [4.0] on the exchange.
Coulter-Nile is more fitting of support then than Warner to do his business. The rangy pacer is 7/2 with Sportsbook to be top bowler, something he has managed once in the series. Coulter-Nile's price has been pushed out after the emergence of Jason Behrendorff, who took four wickets in only his second game.
It could be that Behrendorff is the next big thing in T20 bowling and he could make Coulter-Nile look like a naif. However, we prefer long drawn-out studies and over time Coulter-Nile is actually, would you believe, about a [2.5] shot to cop.
Nicknamed 'River', Coulter-Nile has good experience of Indian conditions. He averages 1.24 wickets per game in IPL compared to a career mark of 1.22 in other domestics. In a market of small margins, we'll take that. Six of his 12 three-wicket hauls have come in India.
The bottom line, however, is that the price is wrong. And although we respect AJ Tye and Adam Zampa for what they have done and could do, Coulter-Nile should be the short-priced jolly.
Points staked: 11
Points p-l: +6.14
To 1pt level stakes