Premier League Betting: Chelsea v Arsenal

Premier League / Richard Walker / 06 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

All eyes will be on John Terry

"One fact worth noting and acting upon is that Didier Drogba simply loves playing against the Gunners. In his last nine outings against them, he’s racked up 10 goals."

There are plenty of fascinating sub-plots surrounding this one, but Richard Walker is sticking to football - and betting - matters

The latest Big Four showdown sees the side with the most clean sheets play host to the team who've scored the most goals this season.

Chelsea, who'll be led by their embattled skipper John Terry, have gone 23 home league games without defeat since losing in November 2008 to... yep, Arsenal!

Strangely, the last four of these matches have gone the way of the visitors. I expect nothing of the sort at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

The Blues have registered 11 shut-outs and, if you accept that set-pieces are their Achilles heel (15 of the 20 goals they've conceded this season have been from dead-ball situations), the Gunners are in fact the side least likely to hurt you in that way.

Add into the mix, if you will, Arsenal's significant absentees. An injury list which includes the likes of Robin van Persie, Eduardo and Abou Diaby - plus three or four other first-team squad regulars - is likely to force Arsene Wenger to play Andrei Arshavin upfront with either Tomas Rosicky and Nicklas Bendtner.

Different to Hull City away on a midweek evening, this is a chance for the Chelsea faithful to get right behind their captain and his team. I can see the Blues turning in a power-packed performance which Arsenal will be unable to cope with.

I'm making Chelsea/Chelsea in the HT/FT market my best bet, backable at around [3.1]. Less certain types might think [1.86] about the hosts in the match odds as representing sufficient value to play heavily there. The Draw is [3.7] and Arsenal [5.0] - admittedly, a tasty price if you're of red and white persuasion.

One fact worth noting and acting upon is that Didier Drogba simply loves playing against the Gunners. In his last nine outings against them, he's racked up 10 goals. Now in a game like this, you do sometimes get someone unusual popping up to break the deadlock. However, from a to score perspective, he needs to be supported at [2.32]. I really don't think he'll be first on target, though, so I'm laying him as first goalscorer to a [6.0] liability.

The goalscorer markets will be plenty liquid enough pre-match to have a good go once the teams are announced. Frank Lampard, for example, is [8.0] to score first and [2.4] at any time. The in-form Nicolas Anelka must warrant consideration at [6.2] to strike first, while Arsenal's favourite in that market is Arshavin, further out at [9.8].

These affairs are hard to call in terms of goals, that's for certain. My assertion that Chelsea will be the dominant force means I could see a few - but I'm just not certain enough to get involved too heavily. If you have a strong opinion, [2.04] is on offer for Under 2.5 goals, with [1.94] about Overs. Interestingly, Over 3.5 goals is at [3.35], a marked difference, suggesting layers see three goals as being about right.

And when [8.0] is the jolly in the correct score section, you can tell Betfairians are undecided. That's the price about 1-1, with 1-0 to the Blues a [8.8] chance. It's [9.0] for 2-1 Chelsea, however [15.5] for that scoreline reversed. A tough market. I'll be playing a split-stake here between 1-0 and 2-0 Chelsea, the latter priced at [10.0].

I mentioned earlier about Chelsea being fired up for this one in front of their own fans. It's not necessarily that it happens to be Arsenal or anything, I just have the sense they'll come roaring out of the traps. You may do worse than to have an interest at [4.5] about there being a goal in the first 10 minutes.

A fascinating afternoon for so many reasons and I've only mentioned footballing matters!

Best Bets: Back Chelsea/Chelsea @ [3.1]
Lay Drogba first goalscorer @ [6.0]
Back 0-10 mins First Goal @ [4.5]