Mexico v England: Are Three Lions worthy favourites for last 16 Azteca altitude clash?

Do England deserve to be favourites against Mexico?

England are 29/202.45 favourites on the Betfair Sportsbook to beat Mexico 2/13.00 in 90 minutes in their last 16 tie, while the Three Lions are 3/41.75 to qualify by any means, including via extra-time or penalties, with the hosts 21/202.05.

It is not unpatriotic to ask - should those odds should be other way around?

Mexico have a 100 per cent record at this World Cup and are yet to concede a goal. That's before we even consider their record at the Azteca Stadium and the altitude factor - both of which we'll discuss below.

First, England's form.

They needed their heroic captain Harry Kane to drag them through their last-32 match against DR Congo. It was exhilarating to see the Bayern Munich man smash the Three Lions to victory late on and if he can bag another brace at 8/19.00 against Mexico his team will have a good chance (as will he in the Golden Boot battle v Messi and Mbappe).

The victory left England 9/110.00 fourth favourites to win the tournament. But the joy at the final whistle should not disguise the fact that they were outplayed by DR Congo for much of the match.

The defence is a shambles, with only Marc Guehi looking anything other than out of his depth against the Congolese. Watching Djed Spence and Ezri Konsa wander out of position, and struggle to match their opponents for pace and power, it was difficult not to wonder how England had gone into a World Cup so undercooked at the back.

Little wonder then that England went from 21/202.05 to 29/202.45 in the early betting on the Betfair Sportsbook. Punters instantly saw that the task is very tough indeed. From an initial 13/53.60, Mexico have been backed in to [2/1].

On the upside, Declan Rice's move to right-back was inspired, the kind of in-game management from Tuchel that England have long craved at tournaments. More on that here from Lewis Jones.

England have the firepower to trouble Mexico but the hosts will be aware of their opponents' defensive weaknesses and working on ways of exploiting it.

Can England hit the heights at altitude?

England have barely caught their breath after Wednesday's win over DR Congo but they will need to reserve some for their trip to the Azteca Stadium which is 7,220ft above sea level.

It's also where Diego Maradona scored the greatest and most controversial goals against them in the 1986 World Cup quarter-final.

Playing up there could be dizzying for England who were undone by the altitude factor at the 2014 World Cup where they failed to win a match.

Tuchel has already said that there is no way for England to prepare for the altitude test. He will simply have to hope his players' fitness means they can handle it.

Mexico's record at Azteca Stadium is phenomenal

Mexico are used to dealing with the altitude factor and their record at the Azteca shows they have used it to their advantge.

They have won 70 of 89 competitive games there, with 17 draws and only two defeats. They are unbeaten in 10 World Cup games there, including their four wins at this tournament.

They will also have the home crowd behind them. Their victory over Colombia in the round of 16 sparked delirious scenes on the streets of the capital and Javier Aguirre's men will arrive with momentum and the palpable hopes of their nation behind them.

Can England spoil the party and beat Mexico in their own back yard? Despite their status as favourites it is a big ask.

Notable winners on Betting.Betfair so far at the 2026 World Cup...

- Mark Stinchcombe's stunning 38/139.00 Bet Builder in South Korea v Czechia
- Paul Higham's 9/25.50 Bet Builder in Mexico's MD1 defeat of South Africa
- Paul also tipped 13/53.60 (Canada v Bosnia) & 15/82.88 (Brazil v Morocco) draws
- A 6/17.00 winning ACCA for Mark on Sunday at the World Cup
- Andy Robson's 9/110.00 five-leg ACCA as Germany wallop Curacao
- A 13/53.60 winner for Paul as France beat Senegal with both teams scoring
- Paul's at it again, an 11/43.75 winning Best Bet in Switzerland v Bosnia
- An 11/26.50 winner for Jimmy The Punt as Jonathan David scores 2+ goals
- Paul's 2/13.00 headline tip in Germany v Ivory Coast was a winner
- Jack Critchley delivered a 5/16.00 goalscorer treble on day 13
- Japan score but lose to give Paul Higham a 3/14.00 winner
- France and Norway help Andy Robson land a 9/25.50 ACCA
- A Lucas Bergvall fouls frenzy v France secures 9/25.50 winner for Jimmy
- Jack bagged four out of four winners in MD21 including an 11/26.50 ACCA

Now read Lewis Jones' on why you should back Rice assists for England against Mexico