Canada v Morocco: Back 13/8 Atlas Lions to play keep ball & go big with 13/1 Bet Builder in Houston

Tournament experience to count for 13/82.63 Morocco

Click here for Canada v Morocco odds
Saturday 4 July, 18:00 kick-off
NRG Stadium, Houston
Live on ITV

Both of these sides came through dramatic last 32 matches and now Canada look to make the last eight for the first time after winning their first ever World Cup knockout match against South Africa last time out. They're 4/15.00 outsiders though.

And that's because Morocco are becoming a real force in the World Cup - surprise semi-finalists in 2022 and battling through against the Netherlands here, scoring a last-gasp equaliser before progressing on penalties.

The Africans are 3/41.75 to win this one in 90 minutes and 1/31.33 to qualify by any means. It's 15/82.88 for a draw and extra-time and 11/26.50 to be settled by a penalty shootout.

You may as well take Morocco at 10/111.00 to win on pens though, as incredibly they've seen just two penalties scored against them in two World Cup shootouts.

Jesse Marsch says his side have nothing to lose here, and Alphonso Davies could give them a huge boost if he can start. But the Atlas Lions are a stronger side with better tournament experience - winning six of their past eight major tournament knockout games.

Morocco build their knockout strategy on defending first and foremost, but this year they've adopted a possession based model to keep the ball away from the opposition - registering 70% possession against the Dutch was impressive.

Canada huff and puff a lot but have only scored more than one goal in one of the last seven World Cup outings, while they only scraped past South Africa - they'll likely come up short here in a classic Moroccan low-scoring knockout tie.

Value stats point to 13/114.00 Bet Builder

Jonathan David remains Canada's most famous goal threat, and he's 7/24.50 to score anytime here, but outside of his hat-trick against Qatar he's managed just two shots on target in total across his other three games.

Tani Oluwaseyi looked lively when given the start against South Africa and he's 10/111.91 for a shot on target after having two in the last game, while Davies looks a decent shout at 23/103.30 to hit the target - even if he doesn't start he'll get more game time than the last round.

Canada have shared their shots on target around and with 7-7-10 in their last three games, so they've created enough to suggest the 13/102.30 for 4+ shots on target, which they've managed in every game, is achievable even against such a stifling defence. The pace and strength of their forwards is a different challenge for Morocco to deal with.

For Morocco, skipper Achraf Hakimi is always worth backing in the big games. With a goal and four shots on target in his last two, we'll take him at 1/12.00 for just 1+ shot on target.

The focus is on fouls for Canada, with Richie Laryea and Nathan Saliba earmarked as the most likely suspects for multiple foul games - Saliba, who will be getting the runaround in midfield, has five in the last two games and Laryea, who has to deal with Hakimi and company down Morocco's right wing, has six.

They both should get another couple of fouls easily enough, but they both had 3+ against South Africa when Canada had just 42% possession. They'll struggle to even get near that against Morocco so will be chasing this technical Morocco side around and 3+ for both seems achievable.

Saliba is 13/102.30 for 3+ fouls and Laryea is priced at 8/52.60 - while including Hakimi to be fouled 2+ times at 8/131.61, which has landed easily in all four games, adds to a bumper payout.

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