Lewis Jones' Notebook: My best antepost Championship bet? The market doesn't like Millwall - they won't care

'No-one likes us, we don't care' - and punters shouldn't either

There is a temptation to look at Millwall's third-place finish last season and think: that was a bit of a freak, wasn't it?

I don't think it was.

Yes, some of the underlying numbers suggest they rode a degree of expected-goals variance. Yes, asking them to reproduce an 83-point campaign in a Championship that now contains the likes of West Ham, Wolves and Burnley is a big ask.

But strip away the noise and you are left with something much more interesting from a betting perspective.

Millwall were third because they were really good at accumulating points.

They won 24 of their 46 league matches, lost only 11 and conceded just 49 goals. More importantly, they were only one point away from automatic promotion.

We don't need Millwall to be as good as they were last season. We just need them to be reasonably close and take advantage of the likely underperformance of teams above them in the market.

Bigger names, bigger budgets mean bigger favourites

Outright markets can sometimes overcompensate for the presence of the big boys.

The Championship has admittedly added some serious firepower with three relegated Premier League clubs West Ham, Wolves and Burnley prominent in the promotion market and all capable of ripping this division apart if things fall right.

However, a league containing several clubs with Premier League resources doesn't automatically mean the rest of the division become bad football teams.

Millwall have already demonstrated that they can take points off teams in this environment.

And unlike some of the promotion hopefuls, they don't need a complete tactical rebuild.

They already know what they are.

There was a time when describing Millwall as a team with an identity basically meant saying they were physical, aggressive and horrible to play against at The Den.

That remains part of the package.

It just isn't the whole package anymore.

Alex Neil has made the difference

Alex Neil has brought a greater degree of tactical flexibility without taking away the characteristics you associate with Millwall. His teams are organised, competitive and pragmatic, but there is more individual quality within this squad than we've seen from many previous Millwall sides.

That matters.

You can have all the intensity in the world, but if the footballing ability isn't there, eventually you hit a ceiling. Millwall's ceiling looks higher now.

Neil is a safe pair of hands at this level and, more importantly, he looks like a very natural fit for Millwall, who are effective from set pieces and developed a young squad with a clear identity that the crowd enjoy watching.

Nine members of their strongest XI were under 26, giving the team unusual scope to improve rather than merely regress.

The betting plan...

Millwall +18 in the season handicap at 16/117.00 really catches my eye.

The beauty of a season handicap is that you don't necessarily have to predict Millwall's exact finishing position.

You are effectively betting that the market has underestimated their ability to accumulate points relative to the rest of the division.

Given the strength at the top of the Championship, there is an obvious danger that the headline contenders hoover up a large number of points. But there is also another possibility: the teams expected to dominate don't dominate quite as much as anticipated, while the likes of Millwall continue quietly collecting results.

That's the scenario I'm interested in.

Millwall don't need to be the best team in the Championship. They just need to be better than the handicap suggests.

If you want a more sensible one that has a fine chance of a return, it's Millwall top eight at 6/42.50.

We're asking a side that finished third last season, with 83 points, just to finish in the top eight again.

There are obvious reasons why that could fail. The division is stronger. Their expected-goals numbers weren't quite as convincing as the raw league position. And the Championship has a habit of producing a completely different monster every season.

But 6/42.50 gives us room for that.

For me, the key question isn't whether Millwall repeat last season, it's whether they regress enough to fall outside the top eight.

I'm not convinced they do.

Now you've read Lewis' case for Millwall get stuck into our 1-24 league predictions for...

The Championship
League One
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