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Spanish Cup Final betting: Fatigue and loss of confidence will cost Getafe

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Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch has little sympathy for troubled Valencia but thinks Getafe's nightmarish exit to Bayern Munich last Thursday will weight them down in the Spanish Cup final

If ever there was a need for proof that the Spanish don't value their domestic cup competition, then look no further than when it is scheduled. Instead of making the cup the end of season showpiece, the Copa Del Rey is sandwiched in midweek, between league fixtures. What's more, they don't even get Katherine Jenkins to sing Abide With Me before kick off.

A measure of the esteem the Spanish cup is held in, is demonstrated by the fact that the last time it was won by either Barcelona or Real Madrid, was back in 1998. But even if the rest of Spain haven't quite got cup fever, you can be guaranteed that this year's finalists, Valencia and Getafe, will be desperate for victory. Valencia have had a terrible season and a cup win is their only chance of qualification for Europe, whilst Getafe are looking to win their first piece of major silverware, having been beaten by Sevilla in last year's final.

A few weeks ago I speculated that the only way that Ronald Koeman could keep his job at Valencia, was to win the Copa Del Rey. Valencia's subsequent results have ensured that even this may not be enough to save Koeman. Rumour has it that the Valencia board will sack Koeman, as soon as they lose their next league game. Which on current form, will be next Sunday against Athletic Bilbao.

Under Koeman's management, Valencia have won just four league games, with six draws and eleven defeats. They now hover just five points above the relegation zone and could well get sucked into trouble. In truth, it is no more than they deserve. In recent years, Valencia have not invested enough to keep up at the top and this season sacked a manager whilst fourth in the league.

I for one found the appointment of Koeman as Quique Sanchez Flores' replacement, baffling. His record as manager of Benfica and PSV was satisfactory rather than outstanding, in leagues that are not known for their competitiveness. Rather than his record, Koeman probably got the job due to the high profile he enjoys in Spain, following his years at Barcelona.

Getafe's Michael Laudrup is another manager whose profile in Spain, lead to his appointment (and if you doubt that, try to think of another boss of a Danish league team that has been snapped up by a La Liga side). The former Barcelona and Real Madrid forward has made a rather better stab of things, maintaining Getafe's mid-table performance of last year and enjoying two good cup runs.

Getafe's UEFA Cup run ended so heartbreakingly against Bayern Munich last week, that there is a danger that it could affect the rest of their season. Having secured an excellent 1-1 draw in Munich, Getafe took the lead in the second leg just before half time, despite having had a man sent off in the sixth minute. They managed to hold onto this lead until the 89th minute, when Ribery finally equalised after an onslaught of Bayern pressure.

Somehow Getafe overcame this disappointment to score two more goals in the opening minutes of extra time to take a 4-2 aggregate lead. But Luca Toni got Bayern back into it in the 115th minute and then in the dying seconds of the match, netted his second to give Bayern the advantage on away goals.

Such a match can really drain a team and plant seeds of doubt regarding their abilities to see out a win. They followed this performance with a subdued 0-0 draw against relegation threatened Real Zaragoza. Laudrup has a big task ahead of him to rouse his team.

Valencia have played with far more freedom in the cup this year and are the favourites in the 90 minutes market at [2.5] with Getafe [3.15] and the draw [3.4]. Though I'd far rather Getafe won it, I've a feeling that Valencia will lift the cup that their season doesn't deserve and they are [1.76] in the winners market, with Getafe at [2.04].