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Champions League Betting: Roma's uncomfortable visit into Wayne's World

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"Mystical" Mike Norman looks into his crystal ball and predicts a Rooney goal and a Man Utd clean sheet despite the possible absence of Rio Ferdinand

Will he or won't he? I'm talking of course about Rio Ferdinand being fit to face AS Roma in Wednesday night's Champions League second leg tie. But will it really be a defensive crisis (like the media are billing it) for Manchester United if Alex Ferguson's star centre back is unable to play a part? Will it hell!

A defensive crisis is when you've got eight of your nine registered defenders out injured and the only fit defender is on a par with Titus Bramble - now that's a crisis. Ok, so United may well be without both Vidic and Ferdinand (if he fails a Wednesday morning fitness test) come kick-off, but they will still be able to field any four from Neville and Silvestre (experience and class will see them through despite worries about their match fitness), Evra, Brown, O'Shea and Pique.

I'm immediately going to point you towards a Manchester United clean sheet, simply because, like the media, there seems to have been an over-reaction on Betfair to Ferdinand and Vidic being injured. I reckon the true odds of United keeping a clean sheet on Wednesday against a Francesco Totti-less Roma should be around [1.8], yet surprisingly there has been over £300 matched at [2.38], with the current odds on offer being [2.32].

So to the game itself, and with United holding a 2-0 advantage from the first leg, it will take a collapse similar to that of AC Milan in the 2005 final for them not to progress to the last four. Roma have never overturned a two goal deficit away from home in European competition, they have never reached the semi-final stages of the Champions League, and what's more, they are facing a Manchester United team who have recorded ten straight victories at Old Trafford in this competition (including a 7-1 defeat of Roma almost a year ago to the day) - an eleventh straight home victory will be a new Champions League record.

Anyone brave enough to back Roma to qualify can have miserly odds of just [21.0]. I say miserly because I don't think the Italian outfit has any chance of progressing to the semi-finals, and three figure odds if they were available still wouldn't temp me to have a punt. However, United are unbackable at [1.04] in the 'To Qualify' market so we must look elsewhere to profit from this game.

With the word 'cautious' not in most of the United's players vocabularies, a home win looks the most likely outcome at odds of [1.75]. The draw is available at [3.75], while a shock Roma away victory can be backed at [6.0]. But what good is [1.75] about a United victory when you can back them at [2.92] to be leading at half-time/full-time? Ronaldo and his gang have scored in the first half in each of their last five games, and with Roma trying to get on the front foot early, I can see another first half goal coming from the Red Devils. Personally I've backed United to win the first half 2-0 at huge looking odds of [11.5] - huge because out of their last 32 matches, United have gone in at half time leading 2-0 on eight occasions - that's one out of every four games, and odds of [11.5] represent far better value than one in four.

But what if Roma do score early (or first)? I've backed the home clean sheet and United to win the first half 2-0 purely from a value point of view as I think both are over-priced, but I admit that Roma could well throw a spanner in the works and score a goal at Old Trafford. Being without Totti once again is a massive blow for Spalletti, but Mirko Vucinic has a massive physical presence and he could cause a lot of problems. Roma need to score in the first half to have any chance of causing a major upset, but even if they do, I think they will be picked off by United as the game goes on, hence why I think 'Over 2.5 Goals' could well be another bet to play at [2.14]

I'm reluctant to play in the correct score market as so much hinges on who scores first. Yes, I think it will be United, and if so then I'd fancy them to win the game 3-0 at odds of [17], but if it is to be Roma then 2-1 to United (available at [9.2]) would be where I would play.

Something I noticed from the first leg was that Roma often doubled up on Ronaldo, leaving Rooney a lot of space. If Roma do the same on Wednesday, then Rooney has to be the man to back in the first goalscorer market as few can exploit the freedom of Old Trafford better than him - he can be backed at [5.0] to score first or at [2.06] to score at anytime during the game.

Manchester United should stroll through the game on Wednesday and then in all probability play an out-of-sorts Barcelona in the semis. This is certainly their best chance to go and win the thing since their 1999 success. You heard it here first.