Bayern Munich v PSG: Back Germans to reach final and bet builder at 4/1

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Wednesday 06 May, 20:00
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Bayern to go full-throttle again

After contributing to what turned out to be a game for the ages, Bayern Munich boss Vincent Kompany was asked if he would do anything differently in the second leg. Would he reflect upon the 5-4 defeat and try to be more defensive? Would he dial down the intensity of the press to avoid leaving gaps in transition?

Kompany's answer was simply that Bayern would have to be even more attacking and intense, and that sums up the approach that has made this team one of the most attractive to watch in world football.

They won the Bundesliga with weeks to spare, and have already scored a record 116 league goals with two games remaining. They have a DFB Pokal final to look forward to, and they will feel that the Munich crowd can propel them to a famous comeback on Wednesday night.

All of Bayern's attacking players delivered in Paris in a chaotic game. Luis Diaz won an early penalty and produced a fourth Bayern goal to keep the Germans in the tie. Michael Olise scored a stunning goal to make it 2-2, and Harry Kane netted from the penalty spot. Jamal Musiala, who suffered an horrific leg injury against PSG in the summer's Club World Cup, constantly looked to open up space and commit defenders.

Bayern weren't able or willing to completely rest their star players in Saturday's heart-stopping 3-3 draw with Heidenheim, and they used Kane, Olise, Diaz and Joshua Kimmich in the second half of the game.

However, there has been a double boost with news that youngsters Tom Bischof and Lennart Karl will be part of the squad. Kompany has a big decision to make at left-back, with Alphonso Davies and Konrad Laimer vying for a starting spot.

PSG have first-leg lead but will it be enough?

If PSG don't reach the Champions League final for a second straight season, they will look back on the first game in Paris and wonder what might have been. At one stage, Luis Enrique's men were 5-2 up, and Bayern were seriously on the ropes. However, the European champions weren't able to build on that advantage, as Bayern forced them back.

If we look at PSG's trips to Munich, it's a mixed picture. Paris lost there in 2023 and 2024, but a Kylian Mbappe-inspired 3-2 win in 2021 set up what proved to be an away-goals success in the quarter-finals. If you look overall at the 11 games the two behemoths have played against each other over the last nine years, there hasn't been a single draw. Bayern have won seven, PSG the other four.

Luis Enrique heavily rotated his squad for the weekend's 2-2 draw with Lorient, but the loss of Achraf Hakimi to injury during the first leg is a hefty blow. The coach admits that Hakimi is the one player Paris don't really have a ready replacement for.

The likely solution is to put Warren Zaire-Emery at right-back, with the recently returned Fabian Ruiz coming into midfield. PSG have no other major injury concerns.

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Bayern can launch comeback and reach the final

The To Qualify market has become pretty much a toss-up, with Bayern trading at evens on the Exchange, and PSG a smidgeon shorter at 1.981/1.

I'm happy to take that Bayern price. I have huge respect for PSG and Luis Enrique, but the loss of Hakimi will affect the champions in all phases of the game. They lose his attacking prowess, his defensive ability and someone will have to be dragged out of the midfield to cover for him.

Bayern have an incredible togetherness and spirit, and Kompany deserves huge credit for that. They had to come from behind three times at home in the second leg of their quarter-final against Real Madrid, and they found a way to eventually win that game 4-3. Bayern have now won all six of their home games in this season's Champions League, scoring 20 goals in the process.

PSG had some wobbly moments at Anfield in the quarter-finals, and while Liverpool let them off the hook, I don't think Bayern will. I'll back the Bavarians to reach the final.

Lucho and Kvaradona to sparkle in 4/15.00 Bet Builder

Luis Diaz and Kvicha Kvaratskhelia were both outstanding last week, a constant menace to their opponents. In two games against PSG this season, Diaz has now scored three goals, won a penalty and been sent off. Kvaratskhelia scored two beautifully taken goals last week, and gave right-back Josip Stanisic nightmares with his trickery.

I'll back Diaz to score and Kvaratskhelia to have two shots on target at 4/15.00 on the Bet Builder. Georgian international Kvaratskhelia has had at least two shots on target in four of his last five Champions League matches, while Diaz has scored in 10 of his last 21 games in all competitions.

Now read Paul Higham's pick of the props and specials bets for Bayern v PSG