Bayern Munich v PSG: Focus on fouls at 3/1 & think outside the box with 10/1 Diaz

Bayern Munich v PSG Tip - Focus on fouls in 3/14.00 PSG prediction

Click here for Bayern Munich v PSG odds
Wednesday 6 May, 20:00 kick-off
First leg: 4-5
Live on TNT Sports 1 & HBO Max

Bayern looked dead and buried when 5-2 down at one point in Paris last week, but two quick goals in that 5-4 thriller mean they're still right in this tie - and in fact they're 9/101.90 favourites to make the final.

Vincent Kompany's men are 4/61.67 to win the match at the Allianz Arena, where they've won 23 of 29 in the Champions League with just one defeat. PSG are 29/103.90 to win the game, but the defending champions only need a draw - priced up at 4/15.00.

After that blockbuster last week PSG drew 2-2 at the weekend while Bayern drew 3-3! And the way they both play they'll likely go toe-to-toe again so who knows what could happen...

Everyone will fancy a few goals, and there should be plenty of them to go around, but I am looking for something different it's PSG's foul count that appeals.

Luis Enrique's side gave away 14 fouls at home last week - the third time they've hit that target in the UCL this season and seventh time they've hit double figures.

They've had 10 fouls in both their last two away games too and with Bayern likely to have more possession again, as they did in Paris, but also be back home in Bavaria then conditions look right for another bumper return of fouls.

Think outside the box with 10/111.00 Diaz

There's obviously a wealth of individual talent on show and with nine goals last week we should expect plenty of goalmouth action again in Munich.

A word of caution about going too heavy on shots on target though as PSG actually scored with all five of their shots on target from 12 attempts, so although accuracy generally wasn't great they were ultra clinical when it mattered.

There were 22 shots and 12 on target between the pair last week and we can expect similar numbers with all the stars on show - Luis Diaz could again be key with Achraf Hakimi missing and Michael Olise likewise if Nuno Mendes also misses out.

Olise at 13/82.63 for 3+ shots from outside the box is one to shortlist as he's had 42 attempts from outside the area - twice as many as Harry Kane this season.

Vitinha looks a good bet at 17/102.70 for 2+ shots from outside the box given 31 of his 38 efforts on goal this season have come from outside the area.

Kane has the most goals outside the box for Bayern (4) and is 7/18.00 while Olise scored last week from range and is 10/34.33 but Diaz 10/111.00 to score from outside the box would be the preference for a value bet - his goal last week was from just inside and he has four strikes from over 18 yards out for club and country this season.

With the aforementioned absence of Hakimi I think Diaz could get a bit of joy here and with Bayern playing from behind they'll have to go for it - at a big price it's a nice small stakes play.

Now read Kevin Hatchard's Bayern v PSG match preview