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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">Scottish Independence Betting: NO leads but can Salmond upset the odds?</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/max-liu/">Max Liu</a></li> <li><time datetime="2014-09-14">14 September 2014</time></li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Scottish Independence Betting: NO leads but can Salmond upset the odds?", "name": "Scottish Independence Betting: NO leads but can Salmond upset the odds?", "description": "Less than a week before the referendum on Scottish independence, No is leading the polls. However, Alex Salmond is a famously strong campaign finisher, so ca...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-betting/scottish-independence-betting-latest-odds-120914-204.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-betting/scottish-independence-betting-latest-odds-120914-204.html", "datePublished": "2014-09-14T10:00:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2014-09-14T11:05:00+01:00", "articleBody": "Less than a week before the referendum on Scottish independence, No is leading the polls. However, Alex Salmond is a famously strong campaign finisher, so can he rally Yes supporters and pull of an historic victory? At the end of a long week, the Better Together campaign leads polls, with No [1.24] and Yes [5.1] in the betting, ahead of Thursday's referendum on Scottish Independence. That's close to where the markets were when I first discussed this vote a year ago. However, few people could have anticipated the events of recent days. Last Sunday, after a poll put Yes ahead for the first time, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem MPs quickly assembled a package of devolution reforms to encourage Scots to vote No. Gordon Brown made impassioned speeches, urging Scots to reject independence. On Wednesday, David Cameron pleaded with them not to use the referendum as "a chance to kick the effing Tories" and Nick Clegg, whose party have 11 seats in Scotland, belatedly joined the campaign. A poll published the same day gave Better Together a six point lead, as No came in to [1.25] and Yes drifted to [5.0], making it an 80% chance. On Friday, a Guardian/ICM poll put No ahead by 51% to 49% but, on Saturday, a poll commissioned by Better Together gave No an eight point lead. It's difficult to keep up with the polls but the betting has been more consistent. Support for independence has grown since Alex Salmond defeated Better Together leader Alastair Darling in the second debate but, even after the shockwaves of last weekend, No has remained comfortable favourite on Betfair. We frequently see odds of 3/1 and longer come in on sporting events and specials markets but, when it comes to politics, betting markets can be more reliable than the polls which offer only a snapshot of electoral mood. Odds reflect variations in voters' intentions and non-voters' expectations over a long period. This referendum is as exciting the US Election of 2008, with the upbeat Yes campaign rallying young voters (unlike General Elections, 16 and 17-year-olds can vote on Thursday) and using social media to promote their message. But lessons for bettors can be drawn from Barack Obama's re-election of 2012. During the final stages of that race, polls indicated a close election. However, Betfair's markets never really wavered from a comfortable Obama victory which turned out to be correct. The markets might yet be proved wrong. The Yes campaign believe they can persuade the remaining undecided voters to back independence. There are few precedents for this kind of vote, although one is the 1995 referendum on Quebecois independence in Canada when the separatist camp went into voting day with a seven point poll lead, only for No to win by a point. On turnout, the markets match the polls, making 75.01 % or higher [1.17] favourite. Ninety-six percent of eligible voters have registered for the referendum which is staggering when turnout at the last General Election was 65%, 34% at May's European elections and only 42% for the referendum on electoral reform in 2011. High turnout should help Yes and Salmond, whose party won the 2011 Scottish elections despite trailing in polls until late on, is adept at rallying support in the days before a vote. Could there be a final twist before Thursday? I expect No to win but it's worth backing 45.01 - 50 percent [2.54] and 40.01-45.0 percent [3.25] in the Yes Vote Percentage market. Regardless of the result, the referendum has been damaging for the government. Cameron expected it to go the way of the 2011 vote on electoral reform, delivering an emphatic majority for No, but if Yes wins he'll face pressure to resign. I wouldn't take [5.0] on the PM to be gone by the end of 2014 but it will be interesting to see how the referendum result affects the General Election markets. At present, a Tory majority is [4.5] with Labour [2.78] and No Overall Majority [2.36]. Can the opposition energise the electorate in May 2015 to anywhere near the levels that the Yes campaign has? If they can, there won't be a Tory government north or south of the border this time next year. ", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Alex Salmond.371x280.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Alex Salmond.371x280.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Alex Salmond.371x280.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Max Liu", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/max_liu" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Alex Salmond.371x280.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Alex Salmond.371x280.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Alex Salmond.371x280.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/politics/Alex Salmond.371x280.jpg 728w" alt="Can Alex Salmond deliver victory for Yes?"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Can Alex Salmond deliver victory for Yes?</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=2573">Join</a> </div> <div> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Scottish%20Independence%20Betting%3A%20NO%20leads%20but%20can%20Salmond%20upset%20the%20odds%3F&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fscottish-independence-referendum-betting%2Fscottish-independence-betting-latest-odds-120914-204.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fscottish-independence-referendum-betting%2Fscottish-independence-betting-latest-odds-120914-204.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fscottish-independence-referendum-betting%2Fscottish-independence-betting-latest-odds-120914-204.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fscottish-independence-referendum-betting%2Fscottish-independence-betting-latest-odds-120914-204.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fpolitics%2Fscottish-independence-referendum-betting%2Fscottish-independence-betting-latest-odds-120914-204.html&text=Scottish%20Independence%20Betting%3A%20NO%20leads%20but%20can%20Salmond%20upset%20the%20odds%3F" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p><strong>Less than a week before the referendum on Scottish independence, No is leading the polls. However, Alex Salmond is a famously strong campaign finisher, so can he rally Yes supporters and pull of an historic victory?</strong></p></div> <div class="entry_body__quote"> <blockquote><p><strong><a href="http://btfr.co/110033387">Scottish Independence Referendum Latest Odds:</p> <p>No <b class="inline_odds" title="1/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.24</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/4</span></b><br/> Yes <b class="inline_odds" title="4/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">5.1</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/1</span></b></a></strong></p></blockquote> </div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <p><br> At the end of a long week, the Better Together campaign leads polls, with <strong><span>No <b class="inline_odds" title="1/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.24</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/4</span></b> and Yes <b class="inline_odds" title="4/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">5.1</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/1</span></b> in the betting</span></strong>, ahead of Thursday's referendum on Scottish Independence. That's close to where the markets were when I <strong><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/politics/uk-politics/scottish-independence-odds-no-favourite-one-year-before-vote-130913-204.html">first discussed</a></strong> this vote a year ago. However, few people could have anticipated the events of recent days.<p>Last Sunday, after <strong><a href="http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1455988.ece">a poll</a></strong> put Yes ahead for the first time, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem MPs quickly assembled a package of devolution reforms to encourage Scots to vote No. </p><p><strong>Gordon Brown</strong> made impassioned speeches, urging Scots to reject independence. On Wednesday, <strong>David Cameron </strong>pleaded with them not to use the referendum as "a chance to kick the effing Tories" and Nick Clegg, whose party have 11 seats in Scotland, belatedly joined the campaign. </p><p><strong><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-poll-no-vote-lead">A poll </a></strong>published the same day gave Better Together a six point lead, as No came in to <b class="inline_odds" title="1/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.25</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/4</span></b> and Yes drifted to <b class="inline_odds" title="4/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">5.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/1</span></b>, making it an 80% chance. On Friday, a Guardian/ICM poll put No ahead by 51% to 49% but, on Saturday, a poll commissioned by Better Together gave No an <strong><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/13/scottish-independence-survation-poll_n_5815374.html">eight point lead</a></strong>. </p><p>It's difficult to keep up with the polls but the betting has been more consistent. Support for independence has grown since <strong>Alex Salmond</strong> defeated Better Together leader Alastair Darling in the second debate but, even after the shockwaves of last weekend, <strong>No has remained comfortable favourite on Betfair</strong>. </p><p>We frequently see odds of 3/1 and longer come in on sporting events and specials markets but, when it comes to politics, <strong>betting markets can be more reliable than the polls</strong> which offer only a snapshot of electoral mood. Odds reflect variations in voters' intentions and non-voters' expectations over a long period. </p><p>This referendum is as exciting the US Election of 2008, with the <strong>upbeat Yes campaign</strong> rallying young voters (unlike General Elections, 16 and 17-year-olds can vote on Thursday) and using social media to promote their message. But lessons for bettors can be drawn from <strong>Barack Obama's re-election of 2012</strong>. During the final stages of that race, polls indicated a close election. However, Betfair's markets never really wavered from a comfortable Obama victory which turned out to be correct. </p><p>The markets might yet be proved wrong. The Yes campaign believe they can persuade the remaining undecided voters to back independence. There are few precedents for this kind of vote, although one is the <strong>1995 referendum on Quebecois independence in Canada</strong> when the separatist camp went into voting day with a seven point poll lead, only for No to win by a point. </p><p>On turnout, the markets match the polls, making <strong><span>75.01 % or higher <b class="inline_odds" title="1/6"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.17</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/6</span></b></span> </strong>favourite. Ninety-six percent of eligible voters have registered for the referendum which is staggering when turnout at the last General Election was 65%, 34% at May's European elections and only 42% for the referendum on electoral reform in 2011. </p><p><strong>High turnout</strong> should help Yes and Salmond, whose party won the 2011 Scottish elections despite trailing in polls until late on, is adept at rallying support in the days before a vote. Could there be a final twist before Thursday? </p><p><strong>I expect No to win</strong> but it's worth backing <strong><span>45.01 - 50 percent <b class="inline_odds" title="6/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.54</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">6/4</span></b></span></strong> and <strong><span>40.01-45.0 percent <b class="inline_odds" title="9/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.25</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">9/4</span></b></span></strong> in the Yes Vote Percentage market. </p><p>Regardless of the result, the referendum has been damaging for the government. Cameron expected it to go the way of the 2011 vote on <strong>electoral reform</strong>, delivering an emphatic majority for No, but if Yes wins he'll face pressure to <strong>resign</strong>. </p><p>I wouldn't take <strong><span><b class="inline_odds" title="4/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">5.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/1</span></b> on the PM to be gone by the end of 2014</span></strong> but it will be interesting to see how the referendum result affects the <strong>General Election</strong> markets. At present, <strong><span>a Tory majority is <b class="inline_odds" title="7/2"><span class="inline_odds__main">4.5</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">7/2</span></b> with Labour <b class="inline_odds" title="9/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.78</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">9/5</span></b> and No Overall Majority <b class="inline_odds" title="11/8"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.36</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">11/8</span></b></span></strong>. </p><p>Can the opposition energise the electorate in <strong>May 2015</strong> to anywhere near the levels that the Yes campaign has? If they can, there won't be a Tory government north or south of the border this time next year.</p><p><br> </p></p> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New customers can get £20 in free bets!</h2> <p>New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBHC01B5G20">T&Cs apply.</a></p> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description "> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description"></div> </section> </div> </section> </div> </section> <div id="betslip" class="entry_body__extras"> <script id="bet_row_tmpl" type="text/x-custom-template"> <tr class="${idx} bet-row"> <td><span class="betting__remove" data-idx="${idx}">Remove</span></td> <td> ${label} <input type="hidden" name="instructions[${idx}][selection_id]" value="${selection_id}"> <input type="hidden" 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